TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100709
Played Sep 9Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111197111191113
Pavel Moulis
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 99 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Pavel Moulis at 54.9%
99 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 18–35 Pavel Moulis Marian Melisek has won 18 of their 53 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:28What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Moulis
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-35 in 53
Moulis
Correct
gap of 17 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1386 vs Moulis 1336
Melisek
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 60% vs Moulis 40%
Melisek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 50% vs Moulis 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek +1 · Moulis -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moulis) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.83 / Moulis 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moulis)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100709
Melisek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Moulis1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek5wins
AwayMoulis5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek66.7%4 of 6
AwayMoulis75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek6Moulis4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S2Melisek6Moulis4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S3Melisek5Moulis5n = 10split evenly
S4Melisek6Moulis3n = 9Melisek took 6 of 9
S5Melisek1Moulis4n = 5Moulis took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekMoulisMelisek − MoulisBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.842.2+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 462 vs 199 / 43748.5%45.5%224 / 462 vs 199 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisMelisek 1.83/Moulis 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 17:08M. Melisek—1111123P. Moulis—79100
LAug 14 · 16:00M. Melisek—101151172P. Moulis—129116113
WAug 8 · 16:34M. Melisek—12615113P. Moulis—10111381
LAug 8 · 15:00M. Melisek—11114592P. Moulis—781111113
WAug 3 · 16:43M. Melisek—11611113P. Moulis—811791
LAug 3 · 15:00M. Melisek—1015121132P. Moulis—1213148113
LJul 23 · 13:04M. Melisek—111091162P. Moulis—612118113
WJul 23 · 10:00M. Melisek—911116113P. Moulis—11381162
LApr 24 · 10:00M. Melisek—8111251P. Moulis—11614113
WApr 14 · 10:00M. Melisek—111111123P. Moulis—7135101
M. Melisek10
LSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113WSep 8 · 16:39M. Melisek2.00112187153J. Hanacek1.735111611132LSep 8 · 16:00J. Blazek2.00711415113M. Melisek1.73118111352LSep 8 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek1.4411129113M. Melisek2.637101151WSep 8 · 13:30J. Hanacek1.5710101161M. Melisek2.2512126113WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832WSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622
P. Moulis10
LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.