TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100413
Played Sep 9Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118611119911
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:06 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMarian Melisek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Marian Melisek at 61.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 6–4 Jakub Dufek Jnr Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Melisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Melisek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1374 vs Jnr 1332
Melisek
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 40% vs Jnr 80%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 40% vs Jnr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek -1 · Jnr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Melisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.53 / Jnr 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Melisek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13100413
Melisek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 46 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it82% 23 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it72% 33 of 46
Jnr2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 88 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back31% 26 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek6wins
AwayJnr4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelisek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek80%4 of 5
AwayJnr60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S2Melisek6Jnr4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S3Melisek6Jnr4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S4Melisek4Jnr3n = 7Melisek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekJnrM − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.235.6+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 463 vs 242 / 46648.4%51.9%224 / 463 vs 242 / 466Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekMelisek 1.53/Jnr 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Melisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek—91211113J. Jnr—1110871
WSep 1 · 10:00M. Melisek—1111113J. Jnr—5890
LAug 21 · 15:00M. Melisek—1195101J. Jnr—51111123
LAug 18 · 12:29M. Melisek—8101181J. Jnr—11129113
WAug 18 · 09:30M. Melisek—991112113J. Jnr—111181042
WAug 16 · 14:00M. Melisek—11129113J. Jnr—9101181
WAug 14 · 14:00M. Melisek—11114113J. Jnr—891191
LJul 22 · 09:30M. Melisek—811111092J. Jnr—113712113
WJul 11 · 16:29M. Melisek—1111113J. Jnr—7750
LJul 11 · 15:30M. Melisek—64100J. Jnr—1111123
M. Melisek10
LSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133WSep 8 · 16:39M. Melisek2.00112187153J. Hanacek1.735111611132LSep 8 · 16:00J. Blazek2.00711415113M. Melisek1.73118111352LSep 8 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek1.4411129113M. Melisek2.637101151WSep 8 · 13:30J. Hanacek1.5710101161M. Melisek2.2512126113WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832WSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622
J. Jnr10
WSep 9 · 10:00J. Blazek2.10125991J. Jnr1.67101111113WSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113LSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143WSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113
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