Marcel Cmil vs Jakub Dufek Jnr 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13100908

Played Sep 8Finished

Marcel Cmil

Home

1.83

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

101211711131311911

Jakub Dufek Jnr

Away

1.83

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below

Set 1 · 10-12

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 11-13

Set 4 · 13-11

Set 5 · 9-11

Point 108 set 5, 9-11

108 points played in total.

H2H Marcel Cmil 30–19 Jakub Dufek Jnr Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 19 of their 49 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Cmil beat Jnr 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cmil)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Jnr form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsCmil 1.83 / Jnr 1.83

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Cmil)+4.0pp

Setka Cup · #13100908

Cmil1.83

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

Jnr1.83

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeCmil5wins

AwayJnr5wins

2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeCmil50%3 of 6

AwayJnr50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Cmil6Jnr4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10

S2Cmil5Jnr5n = 10split evenly

S3Cmil4Jnr6n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10

S4Cmil4Jnr5n = 9Jnr took 5 of 9

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricCmilJnrC − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.137.3−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricCmilJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 677 vs 240 / 46454.4%51.7%368 / 677 vs 240 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Cmil

Cmil 1.83/Jnr 1.83

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Cmil · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Jnr won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 8 · 20:00M. Cmil—11711113J. Jnr—511851

LAug 25 · 16:00M. Cmil—11107101J. Jnr—81211123

LJul 18 · 19:30M. Cmil—114681J. Jnr—81111113

WJul 4 · 18:45M. Cmil—81111123J. Jnr—1164101

LJul 2 · 12:39M. Cmil—791161J. Jnr—11116113

LJul 2 · 10:30M. Cmil—11114332J. Jnr—961111113

WJun 28 · 10:30M. Cmil—121188113J. Jnr—107111192

WJun 27 · 14:00M. Cmil—11119113J. Jnr—781151

WJun 26 · 18:00M. Cmil—131111113J. Jnr—153751

LJun 22 · 11:30M. Cmil—8290J. Jnr—1111113

M. Cmil10

WSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113 WSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113 LSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232 WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113 WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113 WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562 LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113 WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562 LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113 WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113

J. Jnr10

LSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113 WSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143 WSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113 LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171 LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113 LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972 LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132 LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170 WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113 WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151

Upcoming Matches

M. Cmil

Nothing scheduled

J. Jnr

Sep 9 · 10:00J. Jnr1.67J. Blazek2.10—Sep 9 · 10:30J. Jnr2.38M. Melisek1.53—Sep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.61P. Moulis2.20—

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