TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095086
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511117811511––
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 19–29 Marcel Cmil Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 19 of their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:42What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-29 in 48
Cmil
Correct
gap of 10 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1313 vs Cmil 1388
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 40% vs Cmil 80%
Cmil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Cmil 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Cmil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.80 / Cmil 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13095086
Jnr1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 92 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it74% 65 of 88
Cmil1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 65 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back33% 25 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back16% 7 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr5wins
AwayCmil5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr50%2 of 4
AwayCmil50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Jnr5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr6Cmil4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S4Jnr6Cmil3n = 9Jnr took 6 of 9
S5Jnr1Cmil2n = 3Cmil took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrCmilJ − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.937.8+1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 463 vs 367 / 67651.8%54.3%240 / 463 vs 367 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.80/Cmil 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 16:00J. Jnr—81211123M. Cmil—11107101
WJul 18 · 19:30J. Jnr—81111113M. Cmil—114681
LJul 4 · 18:45J. Jnr—1164101M. Cmil—81111123
WJul 2 · 12:39J. Jnr—11116113M. Cmil—791161
WJul 2 · 10:30J. Jnr—961111113M. Cmil—11114332
LJun 28 · 10:30J. Jnr—107111192M. Cmil—121188113
LJun 27 · 14:00J. Jnr—781151M. Cmil—11119113
LJun 26 · 18:00J. Jnr—153751M. Cmil—131111113
WJun 22 · 11:30J. Jnr—1111113M. Cmil—8290
LJun 19 · 13:45J. Jnr—81181172M. Cmil—118116113
J. Jnr10
WSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143WSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791
M. Cmil10
WSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113LSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972
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