TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095096
Played Sep 8Finished
Milan Vydra
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101199111214511
Marcel Cmil
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Vydra to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Vydra above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 104 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Milan Vydra at 58.9%
104 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vydra 15–15 Marcel Cmil Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:42What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vydra
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vydra 1329 vs Cmil 1343
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vydra 40% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vydra 50% vs Cmil 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vydra -2 · Cmil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vydra)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVydra 1.61 / Cmil 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Vydra)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13095096
Vydra1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 29 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Cmil2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 65 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back33% 25 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back16% 7 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVydra6wins
AwayCmil4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVydra leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVydra80%4 of 5
AwayCmil60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vydra5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S2Vydra7Cmil3n = 10Vydra took 7 of 10
S3Vydra7Cmil3n = 10Vydra took 7 of 10
S4Vydra1Cmil3n = 4Cmil took 3 of 4
S5Vydra2Cmil2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVydraCmilV − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.732.0+5.7per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVydraCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 218 vs 366 / 67548.6%54.2%106 / 218 vs 366 / 675Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VydraVydra 1.61/Cmil 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Vydra · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 19:00M. Vydra—1111113M. Cmil—8250
WJul 27 · 15:30M. Vydra—871111113M. Cmil—11117922
LJul 23 · 06:30M. Vydra—111167102M. Cmil—821111123
WJul 18 · 20:28M. Vydra—1111113M. Cmil—5630
LJul 18 · 17:30M. Vydra—511139102M. Cmil—1171111123
LJul 11 · 06:00M. Vydra—1412120M. Cmil—1614143
LJun 28 · 12:28M. Vydra—8440M. Cmil—1111113
WJun 28 · 11:30M. Vydra—1111113M. Cmil—6630
WJun 27 · 17:13M. Vydra—1111113M. Cmil—8660
WJun 27 · 14:30M. Vydra—811119113M. Cmil—11781162
M. Vydra10
WSep 8 · 19:30V. Coubal2.255670M. Vydra1.571111113LSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113LAug 24 · 21:03M. Holub1.831171110113M. Vydra1.8361171282WAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113WAug 24 · 19:00M. Vydra1.801111113M. Cmil1.918250LAug 24 · 18:00M. Vydra1.80138110M. Holub1.911511133WAug 19 · 12:43M. Vydra2.251311113V. Kucala1.5711540LAug 19 · 12:00M. Vydra1.671491111102M. Holub2.10161158123WAug 19 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.7551151192M. Vydra1.40118119113LAug 19 · 10:00V. Kucala1.6781111153M. Vydra2.101145131
M. Cmil10
LSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LAug 24 · 19:00M. Vydra1.801111113M. Cmil1.918250
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