TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100729
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Blazek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210511911911––
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Blazek above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jan Blazek 2–2 Jakub Dufek Jnr Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blazek 1411 vs Jnr 1317
Blazek
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blazek 80% vs Jnr 60%
Blazek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blazek 70% vs Jnr 40%
Blazek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Blazek +3 · Jnr +1
Blazek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blazek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlazek 2.10 / Jnr 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jnr)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13100729
Blazek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 51 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Jnr1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 94 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBlazek2wins
AwayJnr2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlazekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayJnr50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blazek0Jnr4n = 4Jnr took 4 of 4
S2Blazek2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
S3Blazek2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
S4Blazek2Jnr1n = 3Blazek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricBlazekJnrB − JBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match37.040.2−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlazekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 377 vs 241 / 46543.5%51.8%164 / 377 vs 241 / 465Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrBlazek 2.10/Jnr 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek—1071111113J. Jnr—12116972
LAug 27 · 16:29J. Blazek—76100J. Jnr—1111123
WAug 27 · 13:30J. Blazek—51311113J. Jnr—1111891
LAug 11 · 12:00J. Blazek—712971J. Jnr—111011113
J. Blazek10
WSep 8 · 17:08J. Blazek3.2511911113P. Kotrbacek1.33811491WSep 8 · 16:00J. Blazek2.00711415113M. Melisek1.73118111352WSep 8 · 14:30J. Hanacek1.50712771J. Blazek2.50111011113LSep 8 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek1.401112113J. Blazek2.7521090WSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113WSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 09:30J. Blazek2.0092111162J. Seeman1.73111199113WAug 28 · 12:23J. Hanacek1.4081411592J. Blazek2.751112811113LAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113
J. Jnr10
WSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113WSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113LSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143WSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170
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