TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100747
Played Sep 9Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119112115––––
Jan Blazek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Blazek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Jan Blazek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 49 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Jan Blazek at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 23–20 Jan Blazek Jan Blazek has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Blazek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-20 in 43
Melisek
Correct
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1362 vs Blazek 1406
Blazek
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 20% vs Blazek 80%
Blazek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 40% vs Blazek 70%
Blazek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek -2 · Blazek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Blazek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blazek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.83 / Blazek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Blazek)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100747
Melisek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Blazek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek5wins
AwayBlazek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek66.7%4 of 6
AwayBlazek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek6Blazek4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S2Melisek3Blazek7n = 10Blazek took 7 of 10
S3Melisek7Blazek3n = 10Melisek took 7 of 10
S4Melisek1Blazek6n = 7Blazek took 6 of 7
S5Melisek3Blazek1n = 4Melisek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekBlazekM − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.735.2+3.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekBlazekBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 464 vs 165 / 37948.3%43.5%224 / 464 vs 165 / 379Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BlazekMelisek 1.83/Blazek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Blazek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 16:00M. Melisek—118111352J. Blazek—711415113
WAug 28 · 11:15M. Melisek—119118113J. Blazek—11161152
LAug 5 · 15:30M. Melisek—8611101J. Blazek—11111123
WJul 30 · 09:30M. Melisek—115115113J. Blazek—51171172
WJul 15 · 16:33M. Melisek—1111113J. Blazek—5160
WJul 15 · 14:30M. Melisek—1111113J. Blazek—8540
LJul 10 · 10:30M. Melisek—9790J. Blazek—1111113
LJun 24 · 12:38M. Melisek—5711121J. Blazek—11116143
LJun 24 · 11:00M. Melisek—1197101J. Blazek—81111123
WJun 22 · 10:45M. Melisek—911511123J. Blazek—117119102
M. Melisek10
WSep 9 · 12:29J. Blazek2.10211471M. Melisek1.6711811113LSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113LSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133WSep 8 · 16:39M. Melisek2.00112187153J. Hanacek1.735111611132LSep 8 · 16:00J. Blazek2.00711415113M. Melisek1.73118111352LSep 8 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek1.4411129113M. Melisek2.637101151WSep 8 · 13:30J. Hanacek1.5710101161M. Melisek2.2512126113WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832
J. Blazek10
LSep 9 · 12:29J. Blazek2.10211471M. Melisek1.6711811113WSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051LSep 9 · 10:00J. Blazek2.10125991J. Jnr1.67101111113WSep 8 · 17:08J. Blazek3.2511911113P. Kotrbacek1.33811491WSep 8 · 16:00J. Blazek2.00711415113M. Melisek1.73118111352WSep 8 · 14:30J. Hanacek1.50712771J. Blazek2.50111011113LSep 8 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek1.401112113J. Blazek2.7521090WSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113WSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972
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