TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12347977
Played Aug 2Finished
Jan Mares
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113119117911118
Vaclav Coubal
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeVaclav Coubal to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Mares above · Vaclav Coubal below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 101 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Vaclav Coubal at 62.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mares 4–8 Vaclav Coubal Jan Mares has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Coubal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Coubal
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1207 vs Coubal 1262
Coubal
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 0% vs Coubal 40%
Coubal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 20% vs Coubal 50%
Coubal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -5 · Coubal +2
Mares
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Coubal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Coubal form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.25 / Coubal 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Coubal)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12347977
Mares2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 16 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Coubal1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 50 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it70% 32 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares4wins
AwayCoubal6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCoubal leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares57.1%4 of 7
AwayCoubal100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Coubal3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares3Coubal7n = 10Coubal took 7 of 10
S3Mares4Coubal6n = 10Coubal took 6 of 10
S4Mares4Coubal5n = 9Coubal took 5 of 9
S5Mares2Coubal3n = 5Coubal took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresCoubalM − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.942.1−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresCoubalBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 142 vs 193 / 40139.4%48.1%56 / 142 vs 193 / 401Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CoubalMares 2.25/Coubal 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Coubal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares26311751V. Coubal4011711113
LJul 28 · 19:30J. Mares3911841152V. Coubal48611119113
LMar 21 · 20:00J. Mares158340V. Coubal30111183
WMar 8 · 18:03J. Mares48117117123V. Coubal48811811102
WFeb 7 · 10:01J. Mares43111110113V. Coubal37881291
WFeb 7 · 09:00J. Mares43111011113V. Coubal32812841
WDec 26 · 09:30J. Mares491161110113V. Coubal4681191262
LDec 26 · 08:30J. Mares4111118652V. Coubal49881111113
LOct 29 · 21:26J. Mares378101181V. Coubal4311129113
LOct 29 · 20:00J. Mares3811731162V. Coubal48911116113
J. Mares10
LSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220LAug 2 · 19:00J. Mares3.50961131P. Moulis1.2811116103LJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares2.10311751V. Coubal1.6711711113LJul 28 · 19:30V. Coubal1.73611119113J. Mares2.0011841152LJul 28 · 19:00J. Mares3.00115641M. Cmil1.3691111113LJul 28 · 18:00J. Mares3.4051111242J. Mejzlik1.30115711113LJul 25 · 16:28J. Mares3.5071080M. Cmil1.281112103WJul 25 · 15:30M. Cmil1.33126111182J. Mares3.25141126113
V. Coubal10
WSep 8 · 20:31M. Vydra1.578790V. Coubal2.251111113LSep 8 · 19:30V. Coubal2.255670M. Vydra1.571111113LSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143WSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450WAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870WJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares2.10311751V. Coubal1.6711711113WJul 28 · 19:30V. Coubal1.73611119113J. Mares2.0011841152
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