TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12312530
Played Jul 28Finished
Jan Mares
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511611411––
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:02 and never touched — 74.8% is still 74.8%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
74.8%
74.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Mares above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 68 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 74.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mares 8–19 Marcel Cmil Jan Mares has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cmil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-19 in 27
Cmil
Correct
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1234 vs Cmil 1415
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 30% vs Cmil 70%
Cmil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -2 · Cmil +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 3.00 / Cmil 1.36
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Cmil)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12312530
Mares3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 16 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back32% 8 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Cmil1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 105 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it76% 72 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares3wins
AwayCmil7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares100%3 of 3
AwayCmil100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares3Cmil7n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S2Mares3Cmil7n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S3Mares3Cmil7n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S4Mares1Cmil4n = 5Cmil took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresCmilM − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.436.6−5.2per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 143 vs 375 / 71039.2%52.8%56 / 143 vs 375 / 710Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilMares 3.00/Cmil 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.8%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 25 · 16:28J. Mares2571080M. Cmil331112103
WJul 25 · 15:30J. Mares44141126113M. Cmil48126111182
LJul 4 · 20:24J. Mares188460M. Cmil331111113
LJul 4 · 19:15J. Mares2239100M. Cmil341111123
LMay 30 · 18:30J. Mares205690M. Cmil331111113
LMar 21 · 21:00J. Mares30191191M. Cmil4111118113
WFeb 15 · 19:30J. Mares331111113M. Cmil236980
WDec 26 · 08:00J. Mares51129811113M. Cmil40101111352
LDec 20 · 21:30J. Mares32811851M. Cmil4211911113
LDec 20 · 20:30J. Mares3981011101M. Cmil3911124123
J. Mares10
LSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220LAug 2 · 19:00J. Mares3.50961131P. Moulis1.2811116103WAug 2 · 18:00J. Mares2.251111119113V. Coubal1.5713971182LJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares2.10311751V. Coubal1.6711711113LJul 28 · 19:30V. Coubal1.73611119113J. Mares2.0011841152LJul 28 · 18:00J. Mares3.4051111242J. Mejzlik1.30115711113LJul 25 · 16:28J. Mares3.5071080M. Cmil1.281112103WJul 25 · 15:30M. Cmil1.33126111182J. Mares3.25141126113
M. Cmil10
LSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113WSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113LSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WJul 25 · 16:28J. Mares3.5071080M. Cmil1.281112103LJul 25 · 15:30M. Cmil1.33126111182J. Mares3.25141126113
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