TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12348015
Played Aug 2Finished
Jan Mares
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611116310––
Pavel Moulis
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 77.2% is still 77.2%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
77.2%
77.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Mares above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 3-10
Point 67 set 4, 3-10 — our read held Pavel Moulis at 77.2%
67 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mares 0–1 Pavel Moulis Jan Mares has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Moulis
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mares 1223 vs Moulis 1395
Moulis
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 20% vs Moulis 60%
Moulis
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 30% vs Moulis 70%
Moulis
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Moulis -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Moulis) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 3.50 / Moulis 1.28
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Moulis)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12348015
Mares3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 16 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Moulis1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 22 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it74% 17 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMares0wins
AwayMoulis1wins
Moulis leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMaresMoulisMares − MoulisBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match35.045.0−10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 142 vs 217 / 45540.1%47.7%57 / 142 vs 217 / 455Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisMares 3.50/Moulis 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.1%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 25 · 15:00J. Mares351251171P. Moulis4514119113
J. Mares10
LSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220WAug 2 · 18:00J. Mares2.251111119113V. Coubal1.5713971182LJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares2.10311751V. Coubal1.6711711113LJul 28 · 19:30V. Coubal1.73611119113J. Mares2.0011841152LJul 28 · 19:00J. Mares3.00115641M. Cmil1.3691111113LJul 28 · 18:00J. Mares3.4051111242J. Mejzlik1.30115711113LJul 25 · 16:28J. Mares3.5071080M. Cmil1.281112103WJul 25 · 15:30M. Cmil1.33126111182J. Mares3.25141126113
P. Moulis10
LSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112LSep 11 · 07:00F. Husek1.57119118113P. Moulis2.2551181152LSep 11 · 05:30M. Snizek1.73811511113P. Moulis2.0011511862WSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480WSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113LSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051WSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163
Upcoming Matches
J. Mares
P. Moulis
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.