TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111379
Played Sep 11Finished
Jaroslav Puk
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311101212108111311
Pavel Moulis
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 111 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Jaroslav Puk at 59.3%
111 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 19–15 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 15 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Puk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-15 in 34
Puk
Correct
gap of 4 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Puk 1406 vs Moulis 1345
Puk
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Puk 60% vs Moulis 40%
Puk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Puk 50% vs Moulis 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Puk +2 · Moulis -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Puk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 1.57 / Moulis 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Puk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111379
Puk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 26 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Moulis2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 20 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePuk7wins
AwayMoulis3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPuk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayMoulis33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk7Moulis3n = 10Puk took 7 of 10
S2Puk4Moulis6n = 10Moulis took 6 of 10
S3Puk5Moulis5n = 10split evenly
S4Puk8Moulis2n = 10Puk took 8 of 10
S5Puk2Moulis2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPukMoulisP − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match49.245.7+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 318 vs 198 / 43547.5%45.5%151 / 318 vs 198 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PukPuk 1.57/Moulis 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Puk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk—11141110142P. Moulis—816912163
WAug 11 · 09:03J. Puk—11331011113P. Moulis—93512882
WAug 11 · 06:30J. Puk—119511113P. Moulis—61111582
LAug 4 · 06:00J. Puk—2281011112P. Moulis—2011128133
WApr 14 · 12:00J. Puk—13811113P. Moulis—1111491
WMar 5 · 13:34J. Puk—41111113P. Moulis—117991
WMar 5 · 12:00J. Puk—111112133P. Moulis—7914111
WJan 15 · 08:00J. Puk—71111113P. Moulis—115571
WDec 12 · 11:45J. Puk—111111113P. Moulis—691391
LNov 26 · 10:10J. Puk—1081171P. Moulis—12118113
J. Puk10
WSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113WSep 11 · 06:00F. Husek1.619101191J. Puk2.2011124113LSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk2.00691171A. Dvoracek1.7311117113WSep 8 · 08:00A. Dvoracek1.441012481J. Puk2.63121011113LSep 8 · 07:00J. Mejzlik1.67113114113J. Puk2.1071191172LSep 8 · 05:30O. Plyska1.441113113J. Puk2.6351160WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113LSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252
P. Moulis10
LSep 11 · 07:00F. Husek1.57119118113P. Moulis2.2551181152LSep 11 · 05:30M. Snizek1.73811511113P. Moulis2.0011511862WSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480WSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113LSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051WSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151
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