TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094606
Played Sep 8Finished
Adam Dvoracek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121210411811––
Jaroslav Puk
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Dvoracek to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Dvoracek above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Adam Dvoracek at 64.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Adam Dvoracek 3–2 Jaroslav Puk Jaroslav Puk has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:42What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dvoracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvoracek 1446 vs Puk 1378
Dvoracek
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvoracek 20% vs Puk 40%
Puk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvoracek 40% vs Puk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvoracek -3 · Puk -2
Dvoracek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Dvoracek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvoracek 1.44 / Puk 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Dvoracek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094606
Dvoracek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it72% 54 of 75
Puk2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 39 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDvoracek3wins
AwayPuk2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderDvoracek leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvoracekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvoracek1Puk4n = 5Puk took 4 of 5
S2Dvoracek3Puk2n = 5Dvoracek took 3 of 5
S3Dvoracek4Puk1n = 5Dvoracek took 4 of 5
S4Dvoracek3Puk0n = 3Dvoracek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricDvoracekPukD − PBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match34.433.6+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvoracekPukBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 476 vs 149 / 31552.9%47.3%252 / 476 vs 149 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekDvoracek 1.44/Puk 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Puk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 21 · 10:30A. Dvoracek—1111113J. Puk—5880
LMay 7 · 11:00A. Dvoracek—46111192J. Puk—111198113
WFeb 2 · 11:30A. Dvoracek—81111113J. Puk—116691
WNov 28 · 14:00A. Dvoracek—51111113J. Puk—115871
LNov 28 · 13:00A. Dvoracek—10270J. Puk—1211113
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 8 · 06:30O. Plyska1.6711811113A. Dvoracek2.10711651LSep 8 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.83711911113A. Dvoracek1.8311511752LSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113WSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102LSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121WSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LAug 30 · 17:05A. Dvoracek3.007960P. Abraham1.361111103WAug 30 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.80611411113J. Hanacek1.9111911752WAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 14:00P. Abraham1.3611101211113A. Dvoracek3.0051214882
J. Puk10
LSep 8 · 07:00J. Mejzlik1.67113114113J. Puk2.1071191172LSep 8 · 05:30O. Plyska1.441113113J. Puk2.6351160WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113LSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252WAug 31 · 08:34T. Bertho1.61511791J. Puk2.2011711113LAug 31 · 07:30P. Hlina1.53118911113J. Puk2.3891111672LAug 31 · 07:00J. Puk2.10158100T. Bertho1.671711123LAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk2.0061111822M. Vorel1.73118611113
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