TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13104186
Played Sep 9Finished
Pavel Moulis
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114118––––
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8
51 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Moulis 3–3 Jakub Dufek Jnr Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Moulis beat Jnr 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moulis)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 1.73 / Jnr 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moulis)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13104186
Moulis1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 30 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Jnr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 88 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back31% 26 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMoulis3wins
AwayJnr3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis50%2 of 4
AwayJnrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis4Jnr2n = 6Moulis took 4 of 6
S2Moulis3Jnr3n = 6split evenly
S3Moulis4Jnr2n = 6Moulis took 4 of 6
S4Moulis3Jnr2n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMoulisJnrM − JBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.736.8+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 432 vs 243 / 46845.6%51.9%197 / 432 vs 243 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisMoulis 1.73/Jnr 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 9 · 12:00P. Moulis—1111113J. Jnr—4860
LSep 2 · 11:00P. Moulis—971151J. Jnr—11118113
LAug 28 · 09:30P. Moulis—11711692J. Jnr—711611113
LAug 14 · 15:00P. Moulis—11491262J. Jnr—4111110113
WJul 24 · 20:59P. Moulis—41411113J. Jnr—1112771
WJul 24 · 20:00P. Moulis—11118113J. Jnr—391191
P. Moulis10
WSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113LSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051WSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151
J. Jnr10
LSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113WSep 9 · 10:00J. Blazek2.10125991J. Jnr1.67101111113WSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113LSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143WSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151
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