TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13110963
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Snizek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811115511118116
Pavel Moulis
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Snizek to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Snizek above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 87 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Michal Snizek at 62.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Michal Snizek 8–3 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Snizek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Snizek
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snizek 1352 vs Moulis 1365
Moulis
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snizek 40% vs Moulis 60%
Moulis
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snizek 50% vs Moulis 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snizek +1 · Moulis +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Snizek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snizek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnizek 1.73 / Moulis 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Snizek)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13110963
Snizek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 43 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Moulis2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 20 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSnizek7wins
AwayMoulis3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSnizek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnizek71.4%5 of 7
AwayMoulis33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snizek7Moulis3n = 10Snizek took 7 of 10
S2Snizek5Moulis5n = 10split evenly
S3Snizek4Moulis6n = 10Moulis took 6 of 10
S4Snizek5Moulis3n = 8Snizek took 5 of 8
S5Snizek3Moulis1n = 4Snizek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSnizekMoulisS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.036.6+3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnizekMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 334 vs 198 / 43352.1%45.7%174 / 334 vs 198 / 433Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnizekSnizek 1.73/Moulis 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Snizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Snizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 08:53M. Snizek—118611113P. Moulis—31111892
WSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek—11116113P. Moulis—561151
WAug 29 · 20:00M. Snizek—81111113P. Moulis—117371
LApr 6 · 05:30M. Snizek—117671P. Moulis—71111113
LMar 4 · 12:00M. Snizek—11133982P. Moulis—4111111113
LFeb 27 · 09:29M. Snizek—6540P. Moulis—1111113
WFeb 27 · 06:30M. Snizek—1411711143P. Moulis—1213115122
WFeb 9 · 09:30M. Snizek—81111113P. Moulis—113591
WFeb 9 · 06:30M. Snizek—1111113P. Moulis—9830
WJan 31 · 17:00M. Snizek—149117113P. Moulis—121171162
M. Snizek10
LSep 11 · 07:30M. Snizek2.20713731F. Husek1.61111111113LSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113WSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113LSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113LSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113WSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151LAug 29 · 21:05M. Snizek1.44911471M. Cmil2.6311511113WAug 29 · 20:00M. Snizek1.8381111113P. Moulis1.83117371WAug 29 · 18:30M. Cmil1.57118661M. Snizek2.2531111113LAug 29 · 18:00J. Seeman2.7551111113M. Snizek1.40114681
P. Moulis10
LSep 11 · 07:00F. Husek1.57119118113P. Moulis2.2551181152WSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480WSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113LSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051WSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151LAug 29 · 20:00M. Snizek1.8381111113P. Moulis1.83117371
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