TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037442
Played Aug 29Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113811611611––
Michal Snizek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:31 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Snizek to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Michal Snizek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 67 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Michal Snizek at 66.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 16–21 Michal Snizek Marcel Cmil has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:31What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cmil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-21 in 37
Snizek
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1368 vs Snizek 1357
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 40% vs Snizek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 40% vs Snizek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil +1 · Snizek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Cmil) · live re-read · sealed at 34% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.57 / Snizek 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Cmil)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13037442
Cmil1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 98 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 84
Snizek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 18 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back9% 2 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil4wins
AwaySnizek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSnizek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil80%4 of 5
AwaySnizek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil5Snizek5n = 10split evenly
S2Cmil6Snizek4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S3Cmil5Snizek5n = 10split evenly
S4Cmil2Snizek4n = 6Snizek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilSnizekC − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.734.8−0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilSnizekBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 680 vs 171 / 32854.1%52.1%368 / 680 vs 171 / 328Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCmil 1.57/Snizek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.1%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Snizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 08:33M. Cmil—6760M. Snizek—1111113
LAug 27 · 07:00M. Cmil—11360M. Snizek—1311113
LAug 20 · 08:00M. Cmil—861161M. Snizek—11119113
LJul 16 · 06:00M. Cmil—12117852M. Snizek—1061111113
LJul 12 · 11:15M. Cmil—10101161M. Snizek—12122113
WApr 20 · 09:03M. Cmil—1411113M. Snizek—12780
WApr 20 · 08:00M. Cmil—1111113M. Snizek—4490
WApr 6 · 08:33M. Cmil—11119113M. Snizek—451151
WApr 6 · 07:30M. Cmil—11118113M. Snizek—691171
LApr 5 · 16:39M. Cmil—91111682M. Snizek—118911113
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122
M. Snizek10
WSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113LSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113LSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113WSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151LAug 29 · 21:05M. Snizek1.44911471M. Cmil2.6311511113WAug 29 · 20:00M. Snizek1.8381111113P. Moulis1.83117371LAug 29 · 18:00J. Seeman2.7551111113M. Snizek1.40114681WAug 27 · 08:33M. Cmil2.386760M. Snizek1.531111113LAug 27 · 07:30M. Holub2.0081211113M. Snizek1.731110881WAug 27 · 07:00M. Snizek1.611311113M. Cmil2.2011360
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