TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022533
Played Aug 27Finished
Martin Holub
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111210118118––
Michal Snizek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Snizek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Michal Snizek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Snizek at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 20–14 Michal Snizek Michal Snizek has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:56What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Snizek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-14 in 34
Holub
Correct
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1408 vs Snizek 1378
Holub
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Snizek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 50% vs Snizek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +1 · Snizek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Snizek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snizek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.00 / Snizek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Snizek)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13022533
Holub2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 68 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Snizek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 44 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub6wins
AwaySnizek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub83.3%5 of 6
AwaySnizek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub6Snizek4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Holub5Snizek5n = 10split evenly
S3Holub5Snizek5n = 10split evenly
S4Holub5Snizek2n = 7Holub took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubSnizekH − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.4+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubSnizekBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 670 vs 170 / 32655.2%52.2%370 / 670 vs 170 / 326Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnizekHolub 2.00/Snizek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Snizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 07:30M. Holub—81211113M. Snizek—1110881
LAug 9 · 13:30M. Holub—5740M. Snizek—1111113
LJul 19 · 07:00M. Holub—49111172M. Snizek—111168113
WJul 16 · 09:14M. Holub—1111911123M. Snizek—713116102
LJul 16 · 07:00M. Holub—713671M. Snizek—111111113
WJul 12 · 12:48M. Holub—1111113M. Snizek—7940
WJul 12 · 09:15M. Holub—11116113M. Snizek—641181
WJun 25 · 07:15M. Holub—11911133M. Snizek—4117111
LJun 19 · 07:00M. Holub—118591M. Snizek—61111113
WJun 18 · 16:33M. Holub—1111113M. Snizek—9970
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
M. Snizek10
WSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113LSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113LSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113WSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151LAug 29 · 21:05M. Snizek1.44911471M. Cmil2.6311511113WAug 29 · 20:00M. Snizek1.8381111113P. Moulis1.83117371WAug 29 · 18:30M. Cmil1.57118661M. Snizek2.2531111113LAug 29 · 18:00J. Seeman2.7551111113M. Snizek1.40114681WAug 27 · 08:33M. Cmil2.386760M. Snizek1.531111113WAug 27 · 07:00M. Snizek1.611311113M. Cmil2.2011360
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