TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037566
Played Aug 29Finished
Michal Snizek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117113117––
Pavel Moulis
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Snizek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Snizek above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 69 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Michal Snizek at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Michal Snizek 5–3 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:52What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Moulis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Snizek
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snizek 1379 vs Moulis 1344
Snizek
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snizek 60% vs Moulis 80%
Moulis
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snizek 40% vs Moulis 60%
Moulis
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snizek +1 · Moulis +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Snizek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnizek 1.83 / Moulis 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Snizek)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037566
Snizek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Moulis1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSnizek5wins
AwayMoulis3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderSnizek leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnizek66.7%4 of 6
AwayMoulisn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snizek6Moulis2n = 8Snizek took 6 of 8
S2Snizek4Moulis4n = 8split evenly
S3Snizek4Moulis4n = 8split evenly
S4Snizek2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S5Snizek2Moulis1n = 3Snizek took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSnizekMoulisS − MBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match38.236.1+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnizekMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 328 vs 197 / 43152.1%45.7%171 / 328 vs 197 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnizekSnizek 1.83/Moulis 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Snizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Snizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LApr 6 · 05:30M. Snizek—117671P. Moulis—71111113
LMar 4 · 12:00M. Snizek—11133982P. Moulis—4111111113
LFeb 27 · 09:29M. Snizek—6540P. Moulis—1111113
WFeb 27 · 06:30M. Snizek—1411711143P. Moulis—1213115122
WFeb 9 · 09:30M. Snizek—81111113P. Moulis—113591
WFeb 9 · 06:30M. Snizek—1111113P. Moulis—9830
WJan 31 · 17:00M. Snizek—149117113P. Moulis—121171162
WJan 22 · 11:45M. Snizek—1111113P. Moulis—7490
M. Snizek10
WSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113LSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113LSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113WSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151LAug 29 · 21:05M. Snizek1.44911471M. Cmil2.6311511113WAug 29 · 18:30M. Cmil1.57118661M. Snizek2.2531111113LAug 29 · 18:00J. Seeman2.7551111113M. Snizek1.40114681WAug 27 · 08:33M. Cmil2.386760M. Snizek1.531111113LAug 27 · 07:30M. Holub2.0081211113M. Snizek1.731110881WAug 27 · 07:00M. Snizek1.611311113M. Cmil2.2011360
P. Moulis10
LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113
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