TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12312620
Played Jul 28Finished
Jan Mares
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511115117211411
Jakub Mejzlik
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:57 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Mejzlik to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Mares above · Jakub Mejzlik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 78 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jakub Mejzlik at 69.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mares 1–1 Jakub Mejzlik Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Mejzlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mares 1241 vs Mejzlik 1402
Mejzlik
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Mejzlik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 30% vs Mejzlik 60%
Mejzlik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -1 · Mejzlik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Mejzlik) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mejzlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 3.40 / Mejzlik 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Mejzlik)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12312620
Mares3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 16 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back32% 8 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Mejzlik1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 40 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it83% 34 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMares1wins
AwayMejzlik1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMaresMejzlikMares − MejzlikBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match45.046.5−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresMejzlikBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 142 vs 151 / 30739.4%49.2%56 / 142 vs 151 / 307Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MejzlikMares 3.40/Mejzlik 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.3%
Mejzlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mejzlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 5 · 19:00J. Mares4591111682J. Mejzlik48118711113
WJun 28 · 18:30J. Mares45511612113J. Mejzlik45116111072
J. Mares10
LSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220LAug 2 · 19:00J. Mares3.50961131P. Moulis1.2811116103WAug 2 · 18:00J. Mares2.251111119113V. Coubal1.5713971182LJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares2.10311751V. Coubal1.6711711113LJul 28 · 19:30V. Coubal1.73611119113J. Mares2.0011841152LJul 28 · 19:00J. Mares3.00115641M. Cmil1.3691111113LJul 25 · 16:28J. Mares3.5071080M. Cmil1.281112103WJul 25 · 15:30M. Cmil1.33126111182J. Mares3.25141126113
J. Mejzlik10
LSep 9 · 21:08J. Mejzlik2.108680O. Karpisek1.671111113WSep 9 · 20:00J. Mejzlik3.004111311113M. Vana1.36119111382LSep 9 · 18:30O. Karpisek1.801111910113J. Mejzlik1.9194111272WSep 9 · 17:59J. Hanacek1.83145100J. Mejzlik1.831611123WSep 8 · 08:34J. Mejzlik1.801213114113O. Plyska1.91101581192WSep 8 · 07:30O. Plyska1.8381111572J. Mejzlik1.83116711113WSep 8 · 07:00J. Mejzlik1.67113114113J. Puk2.1071191172WSep 8 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.83711911113A. Dvoracek1.8311511752LSep 7 · 08:38J. Mejzlik2.1010111151P. Hlina1.6712313113WSep 7 · 07:30P. Hlina1.5311118652J. Mejzlik2.38681111113
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