TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12296953
Played Jul 25Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214611112116811
Jan Mares
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:30 and never touched — 81.9% is still 81.9%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
81.9%
81.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Jan Mares below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 81.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 17–7 Jan Mares Jan Mares has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:30What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Cmil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-7 in 24
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1381 vs Mares 1276
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 100% vs Mares 20%
Cmil
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 90% vs Mares 40%
Cmil
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil +5 · Mares -1
Cmil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Cmil) · live re-read · sealed at 82% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.33 / Mares 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Cmil)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12296953
Cmil1.33
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 100 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 68 of 90
Mares3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 14 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil7wins
AwayMares3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil100%6 of 6
AwayMares75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil6Mares4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Cmil6Mares4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S3Cmil6Mares4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S4Cmil5Mares2n = 7Cmil took 5 of 7
S5Cmil2Mares2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilMaresC − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.236.5+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 703 vs 56 / 14452.5%38.9%369 / 703 vs 56 / 144Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCmil 1.33/Mares 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.9%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 4 · 19:15M. Cmil341111123J. Mares2239100
WMay 30 · 18:30M. Cmil331111113J. Mares205690
WMar 21 · 21:00M. Cmil4111118113J. Mares30191191
LFeb 15 · 19:30M. Cmil236980J. Mares331111113
LDec 26 · 08:00M. Cmil40101111352J. Mares51129811113
WDec 20 · 21:30M. Cmil4211911113J. Mares32811851
WDec 20 · 20:30M. Cmil3911124123J. Mares3981011101
LNov 16 · 09:00M. Cmil4961117962J. Mares531151511113
WOct 19 · 21:00M. Cmil42112711113J. Mares4241111972
WOct 19 · 19:00M. Cmil491061111113J. Mares4312118482
M. Cmil10
LSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113WSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113LSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113
J. Mares10
LSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220LAug 2 · 19:00J. Mares3.50961131P. Moulis1.2811116103WAug 2 · 18:00J. Mares2.251111119113V. Coubal1.5713971182LJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares2.10311751V. Coubal1.6711711113LJul 28 · 19:30V. Coubal1.73611119113J. Mares2.0011841152LJul 28 · 19:00J. Mares3.00115641M. Cmil1.3691111113LJul 28 · 18:00J. Mares3.4051111242J. Mejzlik1.30115711113LJul 25 · 16:28J. Mares3.5071080M. Cmil1.281112103
Upcoming Matches
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