TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12312590
Played Jul 28Finished
Vaclav Coubal
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611118114911115
Jan Mares
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Mares to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Jan Mares below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jan Mares at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 6–4 Jan Mares Jan Mares has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:01What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Coubal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Coubal
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1241 vs Mares 1228
Coubal
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 40% vs Mares 20%
Coubal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 30% vs Mares 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal -3 · Mares -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 1.73 / Mares 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mares)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #12312590
Coubal1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 49 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it68% 32 of 47
Mares2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 16 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back32% 8 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCoubal6wins
AwayMares4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCoubal leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal100%4 of 4
AwayMares66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S2Coubal7Mares3n = 10Coubal took 7 of 10
S3Coubal5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S4Coubal6Mares3n = 9Coubal took 6 of 9
S5Coubal2Mares2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCoubalMaresC − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.337.9+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 409 vs 56 / 14447.9%38.9%196 / 409 vs 56 / 144Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresCoubal 1.73/Mares 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Coubal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 21 · 20:00V. Coubal30111183J. Mares158340
LMar 8 · 18:03V. Coubal48811811102J. Mares48117117123
LFeb 7 · 10:01V. Coubal37881291J. Mares43111110113
LFeb 7 · 09:00V. Coubal32812841J. Mares43111011113
LDec 26 · 09:30V. Coubal4681191262J. Mares491161110113
WDec 26 · 08:30V. Coubal49881111113J. Mares4111118652
WOct 29 · 21:26V. Coubal4311129113J. Mares378101181
WOct 29 · 20:00V. Coubal48911116113J. Mares3811731162
WSep 22 · 18:00V. Coubal4111118113J. Mares30731191
WSep 18 · 18:58V. Coubal49151211113J. Mares351314441
V. Coubal10
WSep 8 · 20:31M. Vydra1.578790V. Coubal2.251111113LSep 8 · 19:30V. Coubal2.255670M. Vydra1.571111113LSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143WSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851
J. Mares10
LSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220LAug 2 · 19:00J. Mares3.50961131P. Moulis1.2811116103WAug 2 · 18:00J. Mares2.251111119113V. Coubal1.5713971182LJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares2.10311751V. Coubal1.6711711113LJul 28 · 19:00J. Mares3.00115641M. Cmil1.3691111113LJul 28 · 18:00J. Mares3.4051111242J. Mejzlik1.30115711113LJul 25 · 16:28J. Mares3.5071080M. Cmil1.281112103WJul 25 · 15:30M. Cmil1.33126111182J. Mares3.25141126113
Upcoming Matches
V. Coubal
Nothing scheduled
J. Mares
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