TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116593
Played Sep 12Finished
Karel Jirousek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111161181412––
Martin Vorel
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Jirousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Jirousek above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 80 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Karel Jirousek at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Karel Jirousek 16–13 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:14What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vorel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Jirousek
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirousek 1453 vs Vorel 1366
Jirousek
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirousek 20% vs Vorel 40%
Vorel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirousek 40% vs Vorel 20%
Jirousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirousek -1 · Vorel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jirousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirousek 1.83 / Vorel 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jirousek)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116593
Jirousek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Vorel1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJirousek6wins
AwayVorel4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJirousek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirousek80%4 of 5
AwayVorel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirousek5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S2Jirousek5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S3Jirousek4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S4Jirousek6Vorel3n = 9Jirousek took 6 of 9
S5Jirousek2Vorel1n = 3Jirousek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJirousekVorelJ − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.6+1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirousekVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 448 vs 404 / 78451.3%51.5%230 / 448 vs 404 / 784Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirousekJirousek 1.83/Vorel 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jirousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jirousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 06:30K. Jirousek—71111143M. Vorel—1168121
LAug 18 · 08:30K. Jirousek—1051191M. Vorel—12118113
WAug 18 · 06:30K. Jirousek—11711113M. Vorel—911781
WJul 4 · 12:23K. Jirousek—11411113M. Vorel—911791
WJul 4 · 09:45K. Jirousek—611911113M. Vorel—11511342
LApr 15 · 11:30K. Jirousek—1311581M. Vorel—15411113
LMar 23 · 14:03K. Jirousek—116911112M. Vorel—911116133
WMar 23 · 12:00K. Jirousek—111196113M. Vorel—87111162
WMar 22 · 21:00K. Jirousek—111111113M. Vorel—751351
LMar 15 · 20:45K. Jirousek—31480M. Vorel—1116113
K. Jirousek10
WSep 12 · 07:30K. Jirousek1.6711116133K. Farsky2.109511111LSep 12 · 05:30K. Jirousek1.7311119662A. Dvoracek2.00841111113WSep 11 · 20:24K. Jirousek2.50111111113J. Botka1.50613491LSep 11 · 19:15J. Botka1.30111177113K. Jirousek3.4057111162LSep 11 · 18:45K. Jirousek1.917670T. Bertho1.801111113LSep 11 · 17:45K. Jirousek2.38711871L. Hendrych1.5311311113WSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131LSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102WSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133WSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113
M. Vorel10
LSep 12 · 06:00K. Farsky1.611216113M. Vorel2.20101450LSep 9 · 08:49M. Vorel1.83781181T. Bertho1.8311114113WSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122WSep 9 · 06:15M. Hasman1.73691171M. Vorel2.0011116113LSep 9 · 05:45T. Bertho1.8311116133M. Vorel1.837811111LSep 7 · 09:09M. Vorel1.67138111172O. Plyska2.10151188113LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112
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