TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111237
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Botka
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115117711711116
Karel Jirousek
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:44 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeJan Botka to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Botka above · Karel Jirousek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 87 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jan Botka at 69.5%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jan Botka 2–0 Karel Jirousek Karel Jirousek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:44What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Botka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Botka 1420 vs Jirousek 1455
Jirousek
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Botka 60% vs Jirousek 40%
Botka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Botka 50% vs Jirousek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Botka -2 · Jirousek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Botka) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirousek form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBotka 1.30 / Jirousek 3.40
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Botka)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111237
Botka1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 9 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it55% 6 of 11
Jirousek3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 42 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back27% 13 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBotka2wins
AwayJirousek0wins
Botka leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBotkaJirousekB − JBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match35.023.0+12.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBotkaJirousekBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 97 vs 228 / 44443.3%51.4%42 / 97 vs 228 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BotkaBotka 1.30/Jirousek 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Botka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Botka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka—1211123K. Jirousek—104100
WAug 27 · 19:30J. Botka—1311113K. Jirousek—11380
J. Botka10
LSep 11 · 18:15J. Botka2.101171171L. Hendrych1.6741113113LSep 11 · 17:15J. Botka1.8071111962T. Bertho1.91114911113WAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100WAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162WAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 9 · 20:34M. Vorel2.2561113113J. Botka1.571121171WAug 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.531181041J. Botka2.3831112113LAug 9 · 19:00J. Botka1.5011117962M. Vorel2.50781111113LAug 9 · 18:00J. Botka2.38111111892M. Bruk1.53313911113
K. Jirousek10
LSep 11 · 18:45K. Jirousek1.917670T. Bertho1.801111113LSep 11 · 17:45K. Jirousek2.38711871L. Hendrych1.5311311113WSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131LSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102WSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133WSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113LSep 4 · 16:58K. Jirousek2.1010880L. Tuma1.671211113WSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113LAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100LAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113
Upcoming Matches
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K. Jirousek
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