TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111261
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Botka
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711114119911611
Tadeas Bertho
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTadeas Bertho to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Botka above · Tadeas Bertho below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Tadeas Bertho at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jan Botka 4–4 Tadeas Bertho Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:45What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Botka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Botka 1439 vs Bertho 1484
Bertho
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Botka 80% vs Bertho 60%
Botka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Botka 50% vs Bertho 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Botka +4 · Bertho +2
Botka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bertho)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Botka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBotka 1.80 / Bertho 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bertho)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111261
Botka1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 9 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it55% 6 of 11
Bertho1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 72 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBotka4wins
AwayBertho4wins
5 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBotka50%3 of 6
AwayBerthon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Botka6Bertho2n = 8Botka took 6 of 8
S2Botka5Bertho3n = 8Botka took 5 of 8
S3Botka4Bertho4n = 8split evenly
S4Botka4Bertho3n = 7Botka took 4 of 7
S5Botka1Bertho4n = 5Bertho took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricBotkaBerthoBotka − BerthoBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match42.841.4+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBotkaBerthoBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 95 vs 349 / 65844.2%53%42 / 95 vs 349 / 658Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerthoBotka 1.80/Bertho 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Bertho · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bertho won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 29 · 21:05J. Botka—11811113T. Bertho—211371
LJul 29 · 20:00J. Botka—121181622T. Bertho—10131114113
WJul 24 · 20:18J. Botka—811113113T. Bertho—11481152
LJul 24 · 17:15J. Botka—13117682T. Bertho—1191111113
LMar 8 · 06:45J. Botka—111291162T. Bertho—414119113
WDec 6 · 10:00J. Botka—11115113T. Bertho—881191
WDec 6 · 09:00J. Botka—1111123T. Bertho—84100
LDec 3 · 20:45J. Botka—211121252T. Bertho—1141014113
J. Botka10
WAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100WAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162WAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 9 · 20:34M. Vorel2.2561113113J. Botka1.571121171WAug 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.531181041J. Botka2.3831112113LAug 9 · 19:00J. Botka1.5011117962M. Vorel2.50781111113LAug 9 · 18:00J. Botka2.38111111892M. Bruk1.53313911113LAug 8 · 08:44Z. Kuksa1.40121112113J. Botka2.751071471LAug 8 · 07:45J. Botka2.208390Z. Kuksa1.611111113
T. Bertho10
WSep 10 · 16:29M. Soukup2.10111211462T. Bertho1.67614611113WSep 10 · 15:30T. Bertho2.3811911143M. Soukup1.537115121LSep 10 · 14:30T. Bertho1.91611101162T. Hanke1.80119126113LSep 10 · 13:30T. Bertho1.5311410101P. Abraham2.3871112123WSep 9 · 08:49M. Vorel1.83781181T. Bertho1.8311114113LSep 9 · 07:15M. Hasman2.0011411113T. Bertho1.73711971WSep 9 · 06:45T. Bertho1.611112113A. Dvoracek2.2091020WSep 9 · 05:45T. Bertho1.8311116133M. Vorel1.837811111LSep 7 · 20:44V. Toman2.201311113T. Bertho1.6111870WSep 7 · 19:15T. Bertho1.7311118102Z. Kuksa2.008911101
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