TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100454
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111131162111412
Adam Dvoracek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 88 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Martin Vorel at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 10–13 Adam Dvoracek Martin Vorel has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:17What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vorel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Dvoracek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1387 vs Dvoracek 1418
Dvoracek
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 20% vs Dvoracek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 40% vs Dvoracek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel +1 · Dvoracek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vorel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.80 / Dvoracek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vorel)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13100454
Vorel1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 76 of 99
Dvoracek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 55 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel4wins
AwayDvoracek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel80%4 of 5
AwayDvoracek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S2Vorel4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S3Vorel7Dvoracek3n = 10Vorel took 7 of 10
S4Vorel4Dvoracek3n = 7Vorel took 4 of 7
S5Vorel1Dvoracek4n = 5Dvoracek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelDvoracekV − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.540.1+0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 788 vs 249 / 47651.7%52.3%407 / 788 vs 249 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelVorel 1.80/Dvoracek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 16:14M. Vorel—119611102A. Dvoracek—911118123
LAug 16 · 13:45M. Vorel—811111152A. Dvoracek—119713113
WAug 15 · 12:00M. Vorel—2011113A. Dvoracek—18760
LAug 11 · 09:45M. Vorel—8950A. Dvoracek—1111113
LAug 6 · 12:34M. Vorel—611461A. Dvoracek—11611113
WAug 6 · 11:00M. Vorel—11711113A. Dvoracek—611971
LJul 31 · 12:00M. Vorel—991113112A. Dvoracek—1111511133
WJul 29 · 10:00M. Vorel—115119113A. Dvoracek—71171162
LJul 21 · 12:00M. Vorel—810111152A. Dvoracek—111239113
WJul 19 · 15:45M. Vorel—1211133A. Dvoracek—103110
M. Vorel10
WSep 9 · 06:15M. Hasman1.73691171M. Vorel2.0011116113LSep 9 · 05:45T. Bertho1.8311116133M. Vorel1.837811111LSep 7 · 09:09M. Vorel1.67138111172O. Plyska2.10151188113LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252
A. Dvoracek10
WSep 9 · 08:18A. Dvoracek2.7511715113M. Hasman1.409111331LSep 9 · 06:45T. Bertho1.611112113A. Dvoracek2.2091020LSep 9 · 05:15M. Hasman1.501113113A. Dvoracek2.5061170WSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk2.00691171A. Dvoracek1.7311117113LSep 8 · 08:00A. Dvoracek1.441012481J. Puk2.63121011113LSep 8 · 06:30O. Plyska1.6711811113A. Dvoracek2.10711651LSep 8 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.83711911113A. Dvoracek1.8311511752LSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113WSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102LSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121
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