TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116573
Played Sep 12Finished
Karel Farsky
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101614115––––
Martin Vorel
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKarel Farsky to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Farsky above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 68 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Karel Farsky at 58.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Karel Farsky 15–7 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Farsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-7 in 22
Farsky
Correct
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Farsky 1411 vs Vorel 1366
Farsky
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Farsky 20% vs Vorel 40%
Vorel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Farsky 40% vs Vorel 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Farsky +1 · Vorel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Farsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Farsky form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFarsky 1.61 / Vorel 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Farsky)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13116573
Farsky1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 50 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it64% 34 of 53
Vorel2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 78 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFarsky6wins
AwayVorel4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFarsky leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFarsky80%4 of 5
AwayVorel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Farsky5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S2Farsky8Vorel2n = 10Farsky took 8 of 10
S3Farsky5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S4Farsky5Vorel3n = 8Farsky took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFarskyVorelF − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.233.8+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFarskyVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 352 vs 404 / 78448.3%51.5%170 / 352 vs 404 / 784Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FarskyFarsky 1.61/Vorel 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Farsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Farsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 06:00K. Farsky—1216113M. Vorel—101450
WAug 23 · 20:43K. Farsky—81111113M. Vorel—114961
LAug 23 · 19:45K. Farsky—711861M. Vorel—11711113
WJul 31 · 12:38K. Farsky—11118113M. Vorel—771161
WJun 28 · 18:45K. Farsky—141111113M. Vorel—168621
LJun 1 · 20:23K. Farsky—661181M. Vorel—11115113
WJun 1 · 18:15K. Farsky—11119113M. Vorel—791121
WMay 28 · 16:00K. Farsky—1111113M. Vorel—5880
LApr 21 · 13:30K. Farsky—711861M. Vorel—11911113
LApr 4 · 07:30K. Farsky—11681182M. Vorel—811115113
K. Farsky10
LSep 12 · 07:30K. Jirousek1.6711116133K. Farsky2.109511111WSep 12 · 07:00K. Farsky1.61119116113A. Dvoracek2.2091131172WSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122LSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133LSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113WSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113LSep 1 · 15:00T. Bertho2.001111113K. Farsky1.737450WSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113
M. Vorel10
LSep 12 · 06:30K. Jirousek1.8371111143M. Vorel1.831168121LSep 9 · 08:49M. Vorel1.83781181T. Bertho1.8311114113WSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122WSep 9 · 06:15M. Hasman1.73691171M. Vorel2.0011116113LSep 9 · 05:45T. Bertho1.8311116133M. Vorel1.837811111LSep 7 · 09:09M. Vorel1.67138111172O. Plyska2.10151188113LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112
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