TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116749
Played Sep 12Finished
Karel Farsky
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911113611117
Adam Dvoracek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeKarel Farsky to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Farsky above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Karel Farsky at 57.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Karel Farsky 5–4 Adam Dvoracek Adam Dvoracek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:45What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Farsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Farsky 1411 vs Dvoracek 1419
Dvoracek
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Farsky 40% vs Dvoracek 60%
Dvoracek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Farsky 40% vs Dvoracek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Farsky +2 · Dvoracek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Farsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFarsky 1.61 / Dvoracek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Farsky)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116749
Farsky1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite49% won 50 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it64% 34 of 53
Dvoracek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 56 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeFarsky5wins
AwayDvoracek4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderFarsky leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFarsky66.7%4 of 6
AwayDvoracek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Farsky6Dvoracek3n = 9Farsky took 6 of 9
S2Farsky3Dvoracek6n = 9Dvoracek took 6 of 9
S3Farsky5Dvoracek4n = 9Farsky took 5 of 9
S4Farsky4Dvoracek4n = 8split evenly
S5Farsky2Dvoracek1n = 3Farsky took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricFarskyDvoracekF − DBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match41.139.2+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFarskyDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 352 vs 253 / 48448.3%52.3%170 / 352 vs 253 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FarskyFarsky 1.61/Dvoracek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Farsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Farsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 12 · 07:00K. Farsky—119116113A. Dvoracek—91131172
WSep 6 · 20:33K. Farsky—1111113A. Dvoracek—7860
LSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky—1472101A. Dvoracek—121111123
WAug 21 · 12:34K. Farsky—11611113A. Dvoracek—811611
LAug 21 · 10:00K. Farsky—514791A. Dvoracek—111211113
LJul 31 · 11:00K. Farsky—1281111112A. Dvoracek—1011138133
LApr 21 · 17:04K. Farsky—591281A. Dvoracek—111110113
WApr 21 · 16:00K. Farsky—121111113A. Dvoracek—1081341
WApr 16 · 13:30K. Farsky—891111113A. Dvoracek—11116492
K. Farsky10
LSep 12 · 07:30K. Jirousek1.6711116133K. Farsky2.109511111WSep 12 · 06:00K. Farsky1.611216113M. Vorel2.20101450WSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122LSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133LSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113WSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113LSep 1 · 15:00T. Bertho2.001111113K. Farsky1.737450WSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113
A. Dvoracek10
WSep 12 · 05:30K. Jirousek1.7311119662A. Dvoracek2.00841111113LSep 11 · 13:09A. Dvoracek1.8071361982J. Hanacek1.9111111117113WSep 11 · 12:00J. Hanacek1.911013141182A. Dvoracek1.801211166113WSep 11 · 11:00F. Schmidtmayer2.0094110A. Dvoracek1.731111133LSep 11 · 09:30M. Melisek2.6351111113A. Dvoracek1.44117461WSep 9 · 08:18A. Dvoracek2.7511715113M. Hasman1.409111331LSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122LSep 9 · 06:45T. Bertho1.611112113A. Dvoracek2.2091020LSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113WSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123
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