TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111342
Played Sep 11Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511117114116––
Adam Dvoracek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Dvoracek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 66 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Adam Dvoracek at 65.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 12–25 Adam Dvoracek Marian Melisek has won 12 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dvoracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-25 in 37
Dvoracek
Wrong
gap of 13 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1403 vs Dvoracek 1422
Dvoracek
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 60% vs Dvoracek 40%
Melisek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 50% vs Dvoracek 30%
Melisek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek +2 · Dvoracek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Dvoracek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 2.63 / Dvoracek 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Dvoracek)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111342
Melisek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Dvoracek1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it73% 54 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek3wins
AwayDvoracek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek60%3 of 5
AwayDvoracek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S2Melisek5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S3Melisek4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S4Melisek1Dvoracek7n = 8Dvoracek took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekDvoracekM − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.136.8−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 466 vs 250 / 47848.5%52.3%226 / 466 vs 250 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekMelisek 2.63/Dvoracek 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 10:30M. Melisek—9111181A. Dvoracek—11133113
WAug 7 · 10:30M. Melisek—1111113A. Dvoracek—8890
LAug 1 · 15:15M. Melisek—119861A. Dvoracek—61111113
WJul 30 · 12:59M. Melisek—11115113A. Dvoracek—721141
LJul 30 · 12:00M. Melisek—1051191A. Dvoracek—12115113
LJun 24 · 10:00M. Melisek—6680A. Dvoracek—1111113
LJun 22 · 12:43M. Melisek—1114111052A. Dvoracek—316712113
LJun 22 · 09:45M. Melisek—811281A. Dvoracek—11811113
WJun 20 · 12:29M. Melisek—111169113A. Dvoracek—67111152
LJun 20 · 10:15M. Melisek—1011941A. Dvoracek—12611113
M. Melisek10
LSep 11 · 12:39F. Schmidtmayer1.4481111113M. Melisek2.63119741LSep 11 · 11:30M. Melisek2.38117791F. Schmidtmayer1.5381111113LSep 11 · 10:30M. Melisek2.107101191J. Hanacek1.6711126113WSep 9 · 12:29J. Blazek2.10211471M. Melisek1.6711811113WSep 9 · 11:30M. Melisek1.831111113J. Blazek1.839250LSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113LSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133WSep 8 · 16:39M. Melisek2.00112187153J. Hanacek1.735111611132LSep 8 · 16:00J. Blazek2.00711415113M. Melisek1.73118111352LSep 8 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek1.4411129113M. Melisek2.637101151
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 11 · 13:09A. Dvoracek1.8071361982J. Hanacek1.9111111117113WSep 11 · 12:00J. Hanacek1.911013141182A. Dvoracek1.801211166113WSep 11 · 11:00F. Schmidtmayer2.0094110A. Dvoracek1.731111133WSep 9 · 08:18A. Dvoracek2.7511715113M. Hasman1.409111331LSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122LSep 9 · 06:45T. Bertho1.611112113A. Dvoracek2.2091020LSep 9 · 05:15M. Hasman1.501113113A. Dvoracek2.5061170WSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk2.00691171A. Dvoracek1.7311117113LSep 8 · 08:00A. Dvoracek1.441012481J. Puk2.63121011113LSep 8 · 06:30O. Plyska1.6711811113A. Dvoracek2.10711651
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