TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111238
Played Sep 11Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118711711911––
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMarian Melisek to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Frantisek Schmidtmayer below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Marian Melisek at 56.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 0–2 Frantisek Schmidtmayer Marian Melisek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Schmidtmayer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1389 vs Schmidtmayer 1389
Schmidtmayer
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 60% vs Schmidtmayer 40%
Melisek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 50% vs Schmidtmayer 30%
Melisek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek -1 · Schmidtmayer -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Schmidtmayer) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmidtmayer form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 2.38 / Schmidtmayer 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Schmidtmayer)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111238
Melisek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Schmidtmayer1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite57% won 67 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMelisek0wins
AwaySchmidtmayer2wins
Schmidtmayer leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMelisekSchmidtmayerM − SBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match32.541.0−8.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekSchmidtmayerBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 465 vs 208 / 45448.2%45.8%224 / 465 vs 208 / 454Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchmidtmayerMelisek 2.38/Schmidtmayer 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Schmidtmayer · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schmidtmayer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 11 · 11:30M. Melisek—117791F. Schmidtmayer—81111113
LMay 24 · 15:15M. Melisek—1110731F. Schmidtmayer—9121193
M. Melisek10
LSep 11 · 12:39F. Schmidtmayer1.4481111113M. Melisek2.63119741LSep 11 · 10:30M. Melisek2.107101191J. Hanacek1.6711126113WSep 11 · 09:30M. Melisek2.6351111113A. Dvoracek1.44117461WSep 9 · 12:29J. Blazek2.10211471M. Melisek1.6711811113WSep 9 · 11:30M. Melisek1.831111113J. Blazek1.839250LSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113LSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133WSep 8 · 16:39M. Melisek2.00112187153J. Hanacek1.735111611132LSep 8 · 16:00J. Blazek2.00711415113M. Melisek1.73118111352LSep 8 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek1.4411129113M. Melisek2.637101151
F. Schmidtmayer10
WSep 11 · 12:39F. Schmidtmayer1.4481111113M. Melisek2.63119741LSep 11 · 11:00F. Schmidtmayer2.0094110A. Dvoracek1.731111133LSep 11 · 10:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61811101132J. Hanacek2.20119126113WSep 10 · 20:28M. Drabek1.73771171F. Schmidtmayer2.0011115113LSep 10 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83211641M. Drabek1.8311711113WSep 10 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.67101111113T. Stejskal2.10129581WSep 10 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer2.0091111113J. Pina1.73116881LSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113LSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113
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