TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105643
Played Sep 10Finished
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211117611411––
Martin Drabek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Schmidtmayer to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Martin Drabek below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 63 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Frantisek Schmidtmayer at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 4–3 Martin Drabek Martin Drabek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:28What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Drabek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1405 vs Drabek 1343
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 40% vs Drabek 60%
Drabek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 30% vs Drabek 50%
Drabek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer +2 · Drabek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schmidtmayer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmidtmayer form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 1.83 / Drabek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Schmidtmayer)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13105643
Schmidtmayer1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Drabek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer4wins
AwayDrabek3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSchmidtmayer leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer50%2 of 4
AwayDrabek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer4Drabek3n = 7Schmidtmayer took 4 of 7
S2Schmidtmayer2Drabek5n = 7Drabek took 5 of 7
S3Schmidtmayer4Drabek3n = 7Schmidtmayer took 4 of 7
S4Schmidtmayer4Drabek2n = 6Schmidtmayer took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerDrabekS − DBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match39.738.9+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerDrabekBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 449 vs 41 / 12545.9%32.8%206 / 449 vs 41 / 125Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchmidtmayerSchmidtmayer 1.83/Drabek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Schmidtmayer · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Drabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WMay 25 · 20:29F. Schmidtmayer—11118113M. Drabek—661171
LMay 25 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer—6970M. Drabek—1111113
WMar 16 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer—81111113M. Drabek—117851
WJan 27 · 18:45F. Schmidtmayer—691111133M. Drabek—111186112
WSep 9 · 21:00F. Schmidtmayer—11711123M. Drabek—9118101
LSep 9 · 20:00F. Schmidtmayer—1257101M. Drabek—101111123
LMar 12 · 20:45F. Schmidtmayer—117111192M. Drabek—511913113
F. Schmidtmayer10
WSep 10 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.67101111113T. Stejskal2.10129581WSep 10 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer2.0091111113J. Pina1.73116881LSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113LSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.1084111262M. Vana1.671111310113WAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372LAug 28 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.7381290A. Dvoracek2.001114113
M. Drabek10
WSep 10 · 19:00M. Drabek1.9112911113J. Pina1.801011681WSep 10 · 18:00M. Drabek3.0021311113T. Stejskal1.361111941LAug 11 · 20:43J. Hanacek1.911111113M. Drabek1.807930WAug 11 · 19:30M. Drabek1.83101111113J. Hanacek1.83127971LAug 11 · 18:30M. Drabek2.20119981L. Krasl1.6191111113WAug 11 · 17:30M. Drabek2.0011117113J. Mejzlik1.73871191LJun 19 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5711118133M. Drabek2.256711111LJun 19 · 19:30J. Marhol1.4041111113M. Drabek2.75117571WJun 19 · 19:00M. Drabek1.91111169123J. Hanacek1.80841111102LJun 19 · 18:00M. Drabek2.10141112472V. Herrmann1.671271411113
Upcoming Matches
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