TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111437
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Drabek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711711115711––
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMartin Drabek above · Frantisek Schmidtmayer below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11
70 points played in total.
H2H Martin Drabek 4–4 Frantisek Schmidtmayer Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Drabek beat Schmidtmayer 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Drabek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drabek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrabek 1.73 / Schmidtmayer 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Drabek)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111437
Drabek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Schmidtmayer2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog39% won 36 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDrabek4wins
AwaySchmidtmayer4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrabek50%2 of 4
AwaySchmidtmayer50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drabek4Schmidtmayer4n = 8split evenly
S2Drabek5Schmidtmayer3n = 8Drabek took 5 of 8
S3Drabek4Schmidtmayer4n = 8split evenly
S4Drabek3Schmidtmayer4n = 7Schmidtmayer took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricDrabekSchmidtmayerD − SBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match39.037.6+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrabekSchmidtmayerBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 126 vs 206 / 45033.3%45.8%42 / 126 vs 206 / 450Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrabekDrabek 1.73/Schmidtmayer 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Drabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schmidtmayer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 10 · 19:30M. Drabek—11711113F. Schmidtmayer—211641
LMay 25 · 20:29M. Drabek—661171F. Schmidtmayer—11118113
WMay 25 · 19:30M. Drabek—1111113F. Schmidtmayer—6970
LMar 16 · 19:30M. Drabek—117851F. Schmidtmayer—81111113
LJan 27 · 18:45M. Drabek—111186112F. Schmidtmayer—691111133
LSep 9 · 21:00M. Drabek—9118101F. Schmidtmayer—11711123
WSep 9 · 20:00M. Drabek—101111123F. Schmidtmayer—1257101
WMar 12 · 20:45M. Drabek—511913113F. Schmidtmayer—117111192
M. Drabek10
WSep 10 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83211641M. Drabek1.8311711113WSep 10 · 19:00M. Drabek1.9112911113J. Pina1.801011681WSep 10 · 18:00M. Drabek3.0021311113T. Stejskal1.361111941LAug 11 · 20:43J. Hanacek1.911111113M. Drabek1.807930WAug 11 · 19:30M. Drabek1.83101111113J. Hanacek1.83127971LAug 11 · 18:30M. Drabek2.20119981L. Krasl1.6191111113WAug 11 · 17:30M. Drabek2.0011117113J. Mejzlik1.73871191LJun 19 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5711118133M. Drabek2.256711111LJun 19 · 19:30J. Marhol1.4041111113M. Drabek2.75117571WJun 19 · 19:00M. Drabek1.91111169123J. Hanacek1.80841111102
F. Schmidtmayer10
LSep 10 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83211641M. Drabek1.8311711113WSep 10 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.67101111113T. Stejskal2.10129581WSep 10 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer2.0091111113J. Pina1.73116881LSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113LSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.1084111262M. Vana1.671111310113WAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372
Upcoming Matches
M. Drabek
Nothing scheduled
F. Schmidtmayer
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