TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111363
Played Sep 11Finished
Josef Hanacek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101213111416116811
Adam Dvoracek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Dvoracek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Hanacek above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 112 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Adam Dvoracek at 54.9%
112 points played in total.
H2H Josef Hanacek 12–15 Adam Dvoracek Josef Hanacek has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvoracek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Dvoracek
Correct
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanacek 1363 vs Dvoracek 1422
Dvoracek
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanacek 60% vs Dvoracek 40%
Hanacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanacek 30% vs Dvoracek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanacek +2 · Dvoracek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvoracek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanacek 1.91 / Dvoracek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dvoracek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111363
Hanacek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back30% 19 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Dvoracek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it73% 54 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHanacek4wins
AwayDvoracek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanacek66.7%2 of 3
AwayDvoracek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanacek3Dvoracek7n = 10Dvoracek took 7 of 10
S2Hanacek5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S3Hanacek6Dvoracek4n = 10Hanacek took 6 of 10
S4Hanacek1Dvoracek6n = 7Dvoracek took 6 of 7
S5Hanacek2Dvoracek1n = 3Hanacek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHanacekDvoracekH − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.039.3−2.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHanacekDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 444 vs 251 / 48051.1%52.3%227 / 444 vs 251 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekHanacek 1.91/Dvoracek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 16:00J. Hanacek—11911752A. Dvoracek—611411113
LAug 29 · 16:59J. Hanacek—1091141A. Dvoracek—12119103
WAug 29 · 16:00J. Hanacek—1011112113A. Dvoracek—12861162
LAug 26 · 10:00J. Hanacek—661181A. Dvoracek—11119113
WAug 21 · 12:00J. Hanacek—611117113A. Dvoracek—11951162
WAug 19 · 20:48J. Hanacek—111115113A. Dvoracek—961761
LAug 19 · 19:45J. Hanacek—101110101A. Dvoracek—12912123
LAug 18 · 13:00J. Hanacek—1210120A. Dvoracek—1412143
LAug 18 · 10:00J. Hanacek—5730A. Dvoracek—1111113
WAug 16 · 15:45J. Hanacek—1111113A. Dvoracek—9880
J. Hanacek10
WSep 11 · 13:09A. Dvoracek1.8071361982J. Hanacek1.9111111117113WSep 11 · 10:30M. Melisek2.107101191J. Hanacek1.6711126113WSep 11 · 10:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61811101132J. Hanacek2.20119126113LSep 9 · 20:39M. Vana1.50111110113J. Hanacek2.50371281LSep 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.73311513113J. Hanacek2.00116111152WSep 9 · 19:00J. Hanacek2.50115911113M. Vana1.5081111672LSep 9 · 17:59J. Hanacek1.83145100J. Mejzlik1.831611123LSep 8 · 16:39M. Melisek2.00112187153J. Hanacek1.735111611132LSep 8 · 15:30J. Hanacek1.8371181262P. Kotrbacek1.831171110113LSep 8 · 14:30J. Hanacek1.50712771J. Blazek2.50111011113
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 11 · 13:09A. Dvoracek1.8071361982J. Hanacek1.9111111117113WSep 11 · 11:00F. Schmidtmayer2.0094110A. Dvoracek1.731111133LSep 11 · 09:30M. Melisek2.6351111113A. Dvoracek1.44117461WSep 9 · 08:18A. Dvoracek2.7511715113M. Hasman1.409111331LSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122LSep 9 · 06:45T. Bertho1.611112113A. Dvoracek2.2091020LSep 9 · 05:15M. Hasman1.501113113A. Dvoracek2.5061170WSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk2.00691171A. Dvoracek1.7311117113LSep 8 · 08:00A. Dvoracek1.441012481J. Puk2.63121011113LSep 8 · 06:30O. Plyska1.6711811113A. Dvoracek2.10711651
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