TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117747
Played Sep 12Finished
Karel Jirousek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118114911611611
Adam Dvoracek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:03 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeKarel Jirousek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Jirousek above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Karel Jirousek at 54.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Karel Jirousek 6–6 Adam Dvoracek Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:03What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jirousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirousek 1455 vs Dvoracek 1418
Jirousek
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirousek 40% vs Dvoracek 60%
Dvoracek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirousek 50% vs Dvoracek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirousek +1 · Dvoracek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jirousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirousek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirousek 1.73 / Dvoracek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Jirousek)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13117747
Jirousek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 43 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it70% 33 of 47
Dvoracek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 56 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJirousek4wins
AwayDvoracek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirousek50%4 of 8
AwayDvoracekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirousek8Dvoracek2n = 10Jirousek took 8 of 10
S2Jirousek4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S3Jirousek4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S4Jirousek2Dvoracek7n = 9Dvoracek took 7 of 9
S5Jirousek2Dvoracek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJirousekDvoracekJ − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.339.8+1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirousekDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 446 vs 252 / 48251.4%52.3%229 / 446 vs 252 / 482Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirousekJirousek 1.73/Dvoracek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Jirousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 20:00K. Jirousek—1111711102A. Dvoracek—713119123
WAug 20 · 20:29K. Jirousek—11119123A. Dvoracek—3811101
WAug 20 · 18:29K. Jirousek—1151112113A. Dvoracek—51121442
WJul 22 · 15:00K. Jirousek—1111113A. Dvoracek—9690
LJul 15 · 13:45K. Jirousek—119851A. Dvoracek—51111113
LJun 27 · 13:15K. Jirousek—11117782A. Dvoracek—851111113
WJun 6 · 15:30K. Jirousek—1110118113A. Dvoracek—71281142
LJun 3 · 09:45K. Jirousek—881661A. Dvoracek—111114113
LJan 5 · 14:10K. Jirousek—1198101A. Dvoracek—71111123
LJan 5 · 11:00K. Jirousek—711961A. Dvoracek—11711113
K. Jirousek10
WSep 12 · 07:30K. Jirousek1.6711116133K. Farsky2.109511111WSep 12 · 06:30K. Jirousek1.8371111143M. Vorel1.831168121WSep 11 · 20:24K. Jirousek2.50111111113J. Botka1.50613491LSep 11 · 19:15J. Botka1.30111177113K. Jirousek3.4057111162LSep 11 · 18:45K. Jirousek1.917670T. Bertho1.801111113LSep 11 · 17:45K. Jirousek2.38711871L. Hendrych1.5311311113WSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131LSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102WSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133WSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 12 · 07:00K. Farsky1.61119116113A. Dvoracek2.2091131172LSep 11 · 13:09A. Dvoracek1.8071361982J. Hanacek1.9111111117113WSep 11 · 12:00J. Hanacek1.911013141182A. Dvoracek1.801211166113WSep 11 · 11:00F. Schmidtmayer2.0094110A. Dvoracek1.731111133LSep 11 · 09:30M. Melisek2.6351111113A. Dvoracek1.44117461WSep 9 · 08:18A. Dvoracek2.7511715113M. Hasman1.409111331LSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122LSep 9 · 06:45T. Bertho1.611112113A. Dvoracek2.2091020LSep 9 · 05:15M. Hasman1.501113113A. Dvoracek2.5061170WSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102
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