TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116721
Played Sep 11Finished
Karel Jirousek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161113114119––
Jan Botka
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingKarel Jirousek above · Jan Botka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9
76 points played in total.
H2H Karel Jirousek 0–3 Jan Botka Karel Jirousek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Botka beat Jirousek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Botka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirousek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirousek 2.50 / Botka 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Botka)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116721
Jirousek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 42 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back27% 13 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Botka1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 9 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it55% 6 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJirousek0wins
AwayBotka3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBotka leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirousekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayBotka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirousek0Botka3n = 3Botka took 3 of 3
S2Jirousek0Botka3n = 3Botka took 3 of 3
S3Jirousek1Botka2n = 3Botka took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricJirousekBotkaJ − BBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match28.739.0−10.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirousekBotkaBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 445 vs 43 / 9851.2%43.9%228 / 445 vs 43 / 98Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BotkaJirousek 2.50/Botka 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Botka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jirousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 11 · 19:15K. Jirousek—57111162J. Botka—111177113
LAug 27 · 20:38K. Jirousek—104100J. Botka—1211123
LAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek—11380J. Botka—1311113
K. Jirousek10
LSep 11 · 19:15J. Botka1.30111177113K. Jirousek3.4057111162LSep 11 · 18:45K. Jirousek1.917670T. Bertho1.801111113LSep 11 · 17:45K. Jirousek2.38711871L. Hendrych1.5311311113WSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131LSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102WSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133WSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113LSep 4 · 16:58K. Jirousek2.1010880L. Tuma1.671211113WSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113LSep 4 · 15:00L. Tuma1.911111113K. Jirousek1.809950
J. Botka10
WSep 11 · 19:15J. Botka1.30111177113K. Jirousek3.4057111162LSep 11 · 18:15J. Botka2.101171171L. Hendrych1.6741113113LSep 11 · 17:15J. Botka1.8071111962T. Bertho1.91114911113WAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100WAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162WAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 9 · 20:34M. Vorel2.2561113113J. Botka1.571121171WAug 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.531181041J. Botka2.3831112113LAug 9 · 19:00J. Botka1.5011117962M. Vorel2.50781111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Jirousek
J. Botka
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