TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13109093
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Mastera
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111012116311––
Ondrej Polak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:05 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Mastera above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 72 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 59.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Martin Mastera 7–10 Ondrej Polak Martin Mastera has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Polak
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mastera 1762 vs Polak 1691
Mastera
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mastera 80% vs Polak 60%
Mastera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mastera 70% vs Polak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mastera -1 · Polak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mastera form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMastera 2.25 / Polak 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Polak)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13109093
Mastera2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 54 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Polak1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 29 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMastera4wins
AwayPolak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPolak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMastera60%3 of 5
AwayPolak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mastera5Polak5n = 10split evenly
S2Mastera2Polak8n = 10Polak took 8 of 10
S3Mastera5Polak5n = 10split evenly
S4Mastera4Polak3n = 7Mastera took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMasteraPolakM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.035.7−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasteraPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 337 vs 81 / 14249.9%57%168 / 337 vs 81 / 142Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakMastera 2.25/Polak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera—5860O. Polak—1111113
WAug 10 · 14:35M. Mastera—11911113O. Polak—711841
WJul 4 · 13:45M. Mastera—11511113O. Polak—711771
LJul 4 · 10:35M. Mastera—1111951O. Polak—71311113
WJul 4 · 09:10M. Mastera—1111133O. Polak—55110
LJul 4 · 06:05M. Mastera—7760O. Polak—1111113
WJul 3 · 14:05M. Mastera—791111133O. Polak—111136112
LJun 21 · 16:05M. Mastera—891161O. Polak—11119113
LJun 20 · 07:35M. Mastera—11391162O. Polak—511113113
LJun 16 · 10:05M. Mastera—711891O. Polak—11811113
M. Mastera10
LSep 10 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.73911511113M. Mastera2.0011711972WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113WSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442WAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113
O. Polak10
LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113LAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel1.83581114113O. Polak1.83111191232WAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.77116111292O. Polak1.87911814113
Upcoming Matches
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