TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12447661
Played Aug 17Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5118111191412113
Ondrej Polak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 95 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 1–1 Ondrej Polak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Karel 1710 vs Polak 1654
Karel
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 40% vs Polak 60%
Polak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 30% vs Polak 50%
Polak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel -1 · Polak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karel form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.83 / Polak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Polak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12447661
Karel1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Polak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKarel1wins
AwayPolak1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKarelPolakK − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match43.542.5+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 156 vs 76 / 13354.5%57.1%85 / 156 vs 76 / 133Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakKarel 1.83/Polak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LMay 27 · 11:05F. Karel—11461292O. Polak—5111110113
WFeb 22 · 15:35F. Karel—111175113O. Polak—85111122
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781
O. Polak10
WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113WAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.77116111292O. Polak1.87911814113
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