TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12412086
Played Aug 12Finished
Jakub Ruzicka
Home
1.77
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1196111181214911
Ondrej Polak
Away
1.87
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Ruzicka above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 102 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Ruzicka at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Ruzicka 6–4 Ondrej Polak Ondrej Polak has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (51%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Ruzicka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1614 vs Polak 1644
Polak
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 60% vs Polak 40%
Ruzicka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 50% vs Polak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +3 · Polak -1
Ruzicka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.77 / Polak 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ruzicka)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #12412086
Ruzicka1.77
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Polak1.87
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog58% won 15 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back47% 7 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back29% 2 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka6wins
AwayPolak4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka66.7%4 of 6
AwayPolak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka6Polak4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S2Ruzicka3Polak7n = 10Polak took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka6Polak4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka6Polak3n = 9Ruzicka took 6 of 9
S5Ruzicka2Polak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaPolakR − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.840.2−0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 86 vs 75 / 13236.1%56.8%31 / 86 vs 75 / 132Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.77/Polak 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 12:05J. Ruzicka—11119113O. Polak—891181
WJul 4 · 07:05J. Ruzicka—115116113O. Polak—91141182
LJul 3 · 17:20J. Ruzicka—115711O. Polak—81111113
WJul 3 · 15:05J. Ruzicka—121111113O. Polak—148581
LJun 30 · 13:05J. Ruzicka—111188172O. Polak—951111193
WJun 30 · 10:35J. Ruzicka—371111113O. Polak—11117972
LJun 20 · 09:40J. Ruzicka—108111182O. Polak—121198113
WJun 20 · 06:35J. Ruzicka—11511113O. Polak—711861
WJun 17 · 11:35J. Ruzicka—11111123O. Polak—4115101
LJun 16 · 11:05J. Ruzicka—61080O. Polak—1112113
J. Ruzicka10
LSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123WSep 10 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.73911511113M. Mastera2.0011711972WSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123WSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113WAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113WAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113
O. Polak10
WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113LAug 17 · 14:35F. Karel1.83581114113O. Polak1.83111191232
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