TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13053113
Played Aug 31Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711511119116811
Jakub Ruzicka
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:08 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeFilip Karel to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Jakub Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Filip Karel at 67.3%
90 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 3–1 Jakub Ruzicka Jakub Ruzicka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Karel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Karel
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1780 vs Ruzicka 1700
Karel
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 60% vs Ruzicka 40%
Karel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 70% vs Ruzicka 50%
Karel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel -2 · Ruzicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Karel)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.44 / Ruzicka 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Karel)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13053113
Karel1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 40 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 25 of 35
Ruzicka2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 27 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKarel3wins
AwayRuzicka1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKarel leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKareln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRuzicka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel1Ruzicka3n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
S2Karel3Ruzicka1n = 4Karel took 3 of 4
S3Karel3Ruzicka1n = 4Karel took 3 of 4
S4Karel3Ruzicka0n = 3Karel took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKarelRuzickaK − RBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match42.539.2+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 180 vs 43 / 11156.7%38.7%102 / 180 vs 43 / 111Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match40.436.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelKarel 1.44/Ruzicka 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel—75111182J. Ruzicka—111196113
WAug 22 · 18:35F. Karel—1111123J. Ruzicka—99100
WAug 4 · 15:35F. Karel—81112113J. Ruzicka—1131081
WApr 26 · 12:05F. Karel—911712133J. Ruzicka—1161110112
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123WSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113WAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:18J. Ruzicka1.5710570M. Mastera2.251211113LAug 29 · 12:35M. Kucera1.611013811113J. Ruzicka2.20121111862WAug 29 · 11:35J. Ruzicka1.801112113M. Mastera1.9131050
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