TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086948
Played Sep 6Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611911––––
Martin Mastera
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeFilip Karel to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Martin Mastera below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 52 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Filip Karel at 55.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 11–12 Martin Mastera Filip Karel has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:40What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Karel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1777 vs Mastera 1686
Karel
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 60% vs Mastera 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 40% vs Mastera 60%
Mastera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel -1 · Mastera -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Karel)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.73 / Mastera 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Karel)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13086948
Karel1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 43 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it71% 27 of 38
Mastera2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarel3wins
AwayMastera7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMastera leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarel33.3%2 of 6
AwayMastera75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel6Mastera4n = 10Karel took 6 of 10
S2Karel6Mastera4n = 10Karel took 6 of 10
S3Karel5Mastera5n = 10split evenly
S4Karel1Mastera8n = 9Mastera took 8 of 9
S5Karel1Mastera3n = 4Mastera took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelMasteraK − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.242.3−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelMasteraBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 185 vs 164 / 33256.8%49.4%105 / 185 vs 164 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelKarel 1.73/Mastera 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mastera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 14:05F. Karel—71111782M. Mastera—117811113
WAug 17 · 17:04F. Karel—111111113M. Mastera—137351
WAug 17 · 16:05F. Karel—1111127113M. Mastera—65141192
LAug 8 · 19:05F. Karel—11158121M. Mastera—131311133
LAug 8 · 17:10F. Karel—1177101M. Mastera—81111123
LAug 8 · 15:05F. Karel—176991M. Mastera—151111113
LAug 5 · 15:35F. Karel—11811972M. Mastera—611311113
WAug 4 · 14:35F. Karel—1113113M. Mastera—81180
LAug 2 · 19:35F. Karel—12711882M. Mastera—1011911113
LJul 29 · 15:05F. Karel—711691M. Mastera—11811113
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113
M. Mastera10
WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113WSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442WAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113LAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981
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