TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051610
Played Aug 31Finished
Martin Mastera
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811115119118––
Martin Kucera
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:16 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Kucera to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Mastera above · Martin Kucera below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Martin Kucera at 59.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Martin Mastera 13–21 Martin Kucera Martin Mastera has won 13 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kucera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-21 in 34
Kucera
Wrong
gap of 8 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mastera 1638 vs Kucera 1648
Kucera
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mastera 60% vs Kucera 40%
Mastera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mastera 40% vs Kucera 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mastera +2 · Kucera -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kucera) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucera form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMastera 2.25 / Kucera 1.57
Signal prob.43% / 58%
Edge (Kucera)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13051610
Mastera2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 48 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back26% 20 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Kucera1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 18 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMastera6wins
AwayKucera4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMastera leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMastera80%4 of 5
AwayKucera60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mastera5Kucera5n = 10split evenly
S2Mastera5Kucera5n = 10split evenly
S3Mastera7Kucera3n = 10Mastera took 7 of 10
S4Mastera4Kucera5n = 9Kucera took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMasteraKuceraM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.539.50.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasteraKuceraBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 328 vs 70 / 13049.4%53.9%162 / 328 vs 70 / 130Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuceraMastera 2.25/Kucera 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.5%
Kucera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mastera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera—81111113M. Kucera—115981
WAug 29 · 10:35M. Mastera—13611113M. Kucera—1111681
LAug 28 · 17:05M. Mastera—1171161M. Kucera—81113113
WAug 28 · 14:35M. Mastera—1111113M. Kucera—9880
WAug 21 · 14:05M. Mastera—101111133M. Kucera—1298111
LAug 1 · 16:35M. Mastera—1031391M. Kucera—121111113
WJul 20 · 17:03M. Mastera—111188113M. Kucera—89111192
LJul 20 · 14:35M. Mastera—5811101M. Kucera—11118123
WJul 11 · 19:05M. Mastera—11912113M. Kucera—8111091
LJun 20 · 09:10M. Mastera—61110121M. Kucera—11812143
M. Mastera10
WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113WSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442WAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113LAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781
M. Kucera10
WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770WSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132LSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113WSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:35M. Kucera1.611013811113J. Ruzicka2.20121111862WAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113
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