TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080348
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Kucera
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611115311––
Jakub Joksch
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:23 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Kucera to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Kucera above · Jakub Joksch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 66 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Martin Kucera at 64.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kucera 0–2 Jakub Joksch Martin Kucera has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:23What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kucera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kucera 1696 vs Joksch 1747
Joksch
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucera 40% vs Joksch 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucera 50% vs Joksch 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucera +2 · Joksch -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kucera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucera form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucera 1.44 / Joksch 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Kucera)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13080348
Kucera1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite50% won 21 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Joksch2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 24 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKucera0wins
AwayJoksch2wins
Joksch leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKuceraJokschK − JBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match26.035.5−9.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuceraJokschBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 134 vs 54 / 10654.5%50.9%73 / 134 vs 54 / 106Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuceraKucera 1.44/Joksch 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Kucera · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Joksch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera—861131J. Joksch—11115113
LJul 6 · 16:35M. Kucera—8790J. Joksch—1111113
M. Kucera10
WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770WSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981LAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:35M. Kucera1.611013811113J. Ruzicka2.20121111862WAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113
J. Joksch10
WSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172WSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442LSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870LSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WSep 1 · 17:45J. Joksch1.691112113J. Ruzicka1.9771060WSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113WSep 1 · 15:35J. Ruzicka2.5091111672J. Joksch1.50117911113
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