TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13052000
Played Aug 31Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119611117118––
Martin Kucera
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Karel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Martin Kucera below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Filip Karel at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 3–4 Martin Kucera Filip Karel has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Karel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1780 vs Kucera 1648
Karel
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 40% vs Kucera 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 60% vs Kucera 40%
Karel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel -3 · Kucera -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Karel) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karel form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.73 / Kucera 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Karel)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13052000
Karel1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 40 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 25 of 35
Kucera2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKarel3wins
AwayKucera4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKucera leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarel60%3 of 5
AwayKuceran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel5Kucera2n = 7Karel took 5 of 7
S2Karel2Kucera5n = 7Kucera took 5 of 7
S3Karel3Kucera4n = 7Kucera took 4 of 7
S4Karel4Kucera2n = 6Karel took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKarelKuceraKarel − KuceraBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match39.138.9+0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelKuceraBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 180 vs 70 / 13056.7%53.9%102 / 180 vs 70 / 130Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelKarel 1.73/Kucera 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel—1113971M. Kucera—91511113
WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel—11611113M. Kucera—911781
WJul 20 · 15:05F. Karel—111112123M. Kucera—8314101
WMay 23 · 19:05F. Karel—11611113M. Kucera—411741
LMay 16 · 10:05F. Karel—1111108102M. Kucera—851211123
LApr 11 · 15:05F. Karel—10490M. Kucera—1211113
LMar 1 · 11:35F. Karel—34111182M. Kucera—111169113
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113
M. Kucera10
WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770WSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132LSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113WSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981LAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:35M. Kucera1.611013811113J. Ruzicka2.20121111862WAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.