TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061028
Played Sep 2Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511911––––
Jakub Ruzicka
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:23 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Ruzicka to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Jakub Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Ruzicka at 59.4%
54 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 3–1 Jakub Ruzicka Jakub Ruzicka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:23What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Karel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Karel
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1780 vs Ruzicka 1700
Karel
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 20% vs Ruzicka 60%
Ruzicka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 50% vs Ruzicka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel -1 · Ruzicka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Karel) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.53 / Ruzicka 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Karel)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13061028
Karel1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 41 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it70% 26 of 37
Ruzicka2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 29 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKarel3wins
AwayRuzicka1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKarel leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKareln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRuzicka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel1Ruzicka3n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
S2Karel3Ruzicka1n = 4Karel took 3 of 4
S3Karel3Ruzicka1n = 4Karel took 3 of 4
S4Karel3Ruzicka0n = 3Karel took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKarelRuzickaK − RBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match42.539.2+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 180 vs 43 / 11156.7%38.7%102 / 180 vs 43 / 111Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match40.436.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelKarel 1.53/Ruzicka 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel—75111182J. Ruzicka—111196113
WAug 22 · 18:35F. Karel—1111123J. Ruzicka—99100
WAug 4 · 15:35F. Karel—81112113J. Ruzicka—1131081
WApr 26 · 12:05F. Karel—911712133J. Ruzicka—1161110112
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113WAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113WAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:18J. Ruzicka1.5710570M. Mastera2.251211113LAug 29 · 12:35M. Kucera1.611013811113J. Ruzicka2.20121111862WAug 29 · 11:35J. Ruzicka1.801112113M. Mastera1.9131050
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