TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063723
Played Sep 2Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311911117118––
Tomas Bartik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Tomas Bartik below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 9–15 Tomas Bartik Filip Karel has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Bartik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1775 vs Bartik 1738
Karel
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 40% vs Bartik 60%
Bartik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 50% vs Bartik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel +1 · Bartik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bartik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karel form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.91 / Bartik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bartik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13063723
Karel1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 26 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back39% 9 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Bartik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 76 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it77% 58 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarel6wins
AwayBartik4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKarel leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarel100%4 of 4
AwayBartik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel4Bartik6n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S2Karel6Bartik4n = 10Karel took 6 of 10
S3Karel8Bartik2n = 10Karel took 8 of 10
S4Karel2Bartik3n = 5Bartik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelBartikK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.632.3+2.3per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelBartikBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 182 vs 180 / 30356.6%59.4%103 / 182 vs 180 / 303Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikKarel 1.91/Bartik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel—7101121T. Bartik—11127113
WAug 22 · 20:05F. Karel—1111113T. Bartik—8670
WAug 22 · 17:43F. Karel—411811113T. Bartik—11811942
LAug 22 · 16:05F. Karel—591191T. Bartik—11114113
LAug 18 · 21:45F. Karel—981161T. Bartik—11118113
WAug 18 · 19:05F. Karel—1111183T. Bartik—58160
LAug 9 · 13:38F. Karel—5460T. Bartik—1111113
WAug 9 · 12:05F. Karel—81213113T. Bartik—11101171
WAug 4 · 17:35F. Karel—1611113T. Bartik—14130
WAug 4 · 16:05F. Karel—1111113T. Bartik—4890
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113
T. Bartik10
LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel1.807101121T. Bartik1.9111127113LAug 22 · 20:05T. Bartik1.808670F. Karel1.911111113WAug 22 · 19:05T. Bartik1.61111011163J. Ruzicka2.209125151
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