TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13087090
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Trnka
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911116811––
Tomas Bartik
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Tomas Bartik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 68.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 5–9 Tomas Bartik Tomas Trnka has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bartik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Bartik
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1641 vs Bartik 1658
Bartik
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 20% vs Bartik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 50% vs Bartik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka +1 · Bartik -3
Bartik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Bartik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bartik form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 2.63 / Bartik 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Bartik)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13087090
Trnka2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 22 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Bartik1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 76 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it77% 59 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrnka2wins
AwayBartik8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBartik75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka2Bartik8n = 10Bartik took 8 of 10
S2Trnka5Bartik5n = 10split evenly
S3Trnka6Bartik4n = 10Trnka took 6 of 10
S4Trnka5Bartik4n = 9Trnka took 5 of 9
S5Trnka0Bartik5n = 5Bartik took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrnkaBartikT − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.142.1−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaBartikBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 262 vs 180 / 30653.1%58.8%139 / 262 vs 180 / 306Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikTrnka 2.63/Bartik 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bartik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 18:05T. Trnka—49111152T. Bartik—111177113
LAug 22 · 14:05T. Trnka—71161182T. Bartik—119118113
LAug 18 · 18:05T. Trnka—4111281T. Bartik—111310113
LJul 27 · 13:40T. Trnka—116111072T. Bartik—411212113
WJul 27 · 11:35T. Trnka—81111123T. Bartik—1196101
LMay 13 · 18:05T. Trnka—68111112T. Bartik—111188113
LApr 14 · 15:35T. Trnka—88110T. Bartik—1111133
LMar 22 · 11:05T. Trnka—121131072T. Bartik—1051112113
LMar 21 · 20:35T. Trnka—811581T. Bartik—11611113
WMar 4 · 18:45T. Trnka—41111113T. Bartik—118751
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123LSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111
T. Bartik10
LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel1.807101121T. Bartik1.9111127113LAug 22 · 20:05T. Bartik1.808670F. Karel1.911111113WAug 22 · 19:05T. Bartik1.61111011163J. Ruzicka2.209125151
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