TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086947
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Mastera
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
41112101311116––
Tomas Trnka
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Mastera to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Mastera above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Martin Mastera at 65.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Mastera 3–2 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mastera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mastera 1725 vs Trnka 1620
Mastera
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mastera 60% vs Trnka 20%
Mastera
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mastera 70% vs Trnka 40%
Mastera
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mastera +2 · Trnka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Mastera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMastera 1.50 / Trnka 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Mastera)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13086947
Mastera1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 47 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it79% 37 of 47
Trnka2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 22 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMastera3wins
AwayTrnka2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMastera leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMasteran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTrnka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mastera2Trnka3n = 5Trnka took 3 of 5
S2Mastera3Trnka2n = 5Mastera took 3 of 5
S3Mastera3Trnka2n = 5Mastera took 3 of 5
S4Mastera2Trnka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMasteraTrnkaM − TBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match36.836.2+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasteraTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 334 vs 139 / 26349.7%52.9%166 / 334 vs 139 / 263Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MasteraMastera 1.50/Trnka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Mastera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mastera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 5 · 07:35M. Mastera—1111113T. Trnka—5960
LJul 29 · 10:05M. Mastera—711691T. Trnka—11611113
WApr 16 · 15:05M. Mastera—511311113T. Trnka—11811882
WMar 22 · 14:15M. Mastera—111211113T. Trnka—814751
LMar 22 · 13:35M. Mastera—7101141T. Trnka—11128113
M. Mastera10
WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113WSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442WAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113LAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123LSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111
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