TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080392
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomas Trnka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911611––––
Martin Mastera
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:28 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Mastera to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Martin Mastera below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Martin Mastera at 57.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 2–3 Martin Mastera Tomas Trnka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mastera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1653 vs Mastera 1665
Mastera
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 60% vs Mastera 80%
Mastera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 60% vs Mastera 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka -1 · Mastera +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Mastera) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mastera form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 2.20 / Mastera 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Mastera)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13080392
Trnka2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 22 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Mastera1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 45 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it78% 35 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeTrnka2wins
AwayMastera3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMastera leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnka66.7%2 of 3
AwayMasteran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka3Mastera2n = 5Trnka took 3 of 5
S2Trnka2Mastera3n = 5Mastera took 3 of 5
S3Trnka2Mastera3n = 5Mastera took 3 of 5
S4Trnka2Mastera2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricTrnkaMasteraT − MBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match36.236.8−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaMasteraBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 259 vs 164 / 33053.3%49.7%138 / 259 vs 164 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MasteraTrnka 2.20/Mastera 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Mastera · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mastera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka—5960M. Mastera—1111113
WJul 29 · 10:05T. Trnka—11611113M. Mastera—711691
LApr 16 · 15:05T. Trnka—11811882M. Mastera—511311113
LMar 22 · 14:15T. Trnka—814751M. Mastera—111211113
WMar 22 · 13:35T. Trnka—11128113M. Mastera—7101141
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123LSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111
M. Mastera10
WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442WAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113LAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981
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