TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13088613
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Mastera
Home
2.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117113––––
Tomas Bartik
Away
1.45
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:46 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Mastera above · Tomas Bartik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 50 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 63.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Martin Mastera 20–14 Tomas Bartik Tomas Bartik has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:46What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-14 in 34
Mastera
Correct
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mastera 1775 vs Bartik 1665
Mastera
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mastera 60% vs Bartik 40%
Mastera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mastera 70% vs Bartik 50%
Mastera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mastera +3 · Bartik +2
Mastera
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Bartik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bartik form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMastera 2.44 / Bartik 1.45
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Bartik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13088613
Mastera2.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Bartik1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 76 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it77% 59 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMastera8wins
AwayBartik2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMastera leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMastera100%4 of 4
AwayBartik33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mastera4Bartik6n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S2Mastera8Bartik2n = 10Mastera took 8 of 10
S3Mastera7Bartik3n = 10Mastera took 7 of 10
S4Mastera4Bartik2n = 6Mastera took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMasteraBartikM − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.333.9+5.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasteraBartikBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 336 vs 182 / 30950%58.9%168 / 336 vs 182 / 309Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikMastera 2.44/Bartik 1.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.1%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mastera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera—1111113T. Bartik—7730
WSep 6 · 14:35M. Mastera—911138113T. Bartik—116111162
WAug 21 · 17:39M. Mastera—1111113T. Bartik—8890
WAug 21 · 16:05M. Mastera—91111133T. Bartik—1158111
WAug 10 · 16:05M. Mastera—91111113T. Bartik—113881
LAug 4 · 15:05M. Mastera—41280T. Bartik—1114113
WAug 1 · 15:05M. Mastera—1111113T. Bartik—7790
LJul 23 · 17:10M. Mastera—1011591T. Bartik—12511113
WJul 23 · 14:05M. Mastera—117816113T. Bartik—911111492
WJul 11 · 18:35M. Mastera—101111123T. Bartik—1276101
M. Mastera10
WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113WSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442WAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113LAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981
T. Bartik10
WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel1.807101121T. Bartik1.9111127113LAug 22 · 20:05T. Bartik1.808670F. Karel1.911111113WAug 22 · 19:05T. Bartik1.61111011163J. Ruzicka2.209125151
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