TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063204
Played Sep 2Finished
Tomas Bartik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111172111113––
Dominik Lengal
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Lengal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Dominik Lengal below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 75 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Dominik Lengal at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 28–23 Dominik Lengal Dominik Lengal has won 23 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:48What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-23 in 51
Bartik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1734 vs Lengal 1819
Lengal
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 60% vs Lengal 80%
Lengal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 50% vs Lengal 70%
Lengal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik +1 · Lengal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bartik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lengal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.80 / Lengal 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bartik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13063204
Bartik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 76 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it77% 58 of 75
Lengal1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 11 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartik6wins
AwayLengal4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartik83.3%5 of 6
AwayLengal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik6Lengal4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S2Bartik6Lengal4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S3Bartik6Lengal4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S4Bartik6Lengal2n = 8Bartik took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartikLengalB − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.837.4+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikLengalBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 301 vs 176 / 28659.5%61.5%179 / 301 vs 176 / 286Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.80/Lengal 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lengal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 11:35T. Bartik—11911113D. Lengal—911831
WAug 1 · 18:35T. Bartik—1111113D. Lengal—7460
LAug 1 · 16:05T. Bartik—106121182D. Lengal—1211109113
WJul 27 · 10:35T. Bartik—11118113D. Lengal—791151
LJul 23 · 16:05T. Bartik—15107121D. Lengal—131211143
WJul 14 · 21:45T. Bartik—91112113D. Lengal—1181031
WJul 14 · 20:05T. Bartik—1214113D. Lengal—101280
LJun 29 · 20:05T. Bartik—711941D. Lengal—11411113
WJun 29 · 13:35T. Bartik—11119113D. Lengal—651191
LJun 29 · 12:05T. Bartik—1211111862D. Lengal—1413716113
T. Bartik10
LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123WAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel1.807101121T. Bartik1.9111127113LAug 22 · 20:05T. Bartik1.808670F. Karel1.911111113WAug 22 · 19:05T. Bartik1.61111011163J. Ruzicka2.209125151
D. Lengal10
LSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232WAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:05D. Lengal1.331111113M. Mastera3.256950LAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113WAug 29 · 10:05D. Lengal1.40128117133J. Ruzicka2.751011511112WAug 28 · 17:35J. Ruzicka2.254650D. Lengal1.571111113WAug 28 · 16:05D. Lengal1.331111123M. Mastera3.2589100WAug 28 · 15:05D. Lengal1.731111113M. Kucera2.009950
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