TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13038116
Played Aug 29Finished
Dominik Lengal
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12108111157111311
Jakub Ruzicka
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:32 and never touched — 61.1% is still 61.1%
Graded at full timeDominik Lengal to win
61.1%
61.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Lengal above · Jakub Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 99 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Dominik Lengal at 61.1%
99 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Lengal 11–5 Jakub Ruzicka Jakub Ruzicka has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:32What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lengal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Lengal
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lengal 1819 vs Ruzicka 1654
Lengal
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lengal 80% vs Ruzicka 60%
Lengal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lengal 60% vs Ruzicka 40%
Lengal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lengal +3 · Ruzicka -2
Lengal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Lengal) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLengal 1.40 / Ruzicka 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Lengal)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13038116
Lengal1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 92 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it86% 73 of 85
Ruzicka2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 27 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLengal7wins
AwayRuzicka3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLengal leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLengal100%6 of 6
AwayRuzicka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lengal6Ruzicka4n = 10Lengal took 6 of 10
S2Lengal7Ruzicka3n = 10Lengal took 7 of 10
S3Lengal9Ruzicka1n = 10Lengal took 9 of 10
S4Lengal2Ruzicka3n = 5Ruzicka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLengalRuzickaL − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.230.1+7.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLengalRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 286 vs 40 / 10761.5%37.4%176 / 286 vs 40 / 107Avg sets wonper match2.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LengalLengal 1.40/Ruzicka 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Lengal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lengal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 17:35D. Lengal—1111113J. Ruzicka—4650
LAug 28 · 14:05D. Lengal—681191J. Ruzicka—11116113
WAug 26 · 17:35D. Lengal—61211113J. Ruzicka—1110361
WAug 26 · 15:05D. Lengal—1111113J. Ruzicka—8380
WAug 1 · 21:08D. Lengal—1111113J. Ruzicka—8840
LAug 1 · 19:05D. Lengal—981181J. Ruzicka—11119113
WJul 14 · 18:35D. Lengal—1111113J. Ruzicka—4860
LJul 14 · 16:05D. Lengal—712118102J. Ruzicka—1110811123
WJun 30 · 11:05D. Lengal—117911113J. Ruzicka—71111792
WJun 29 · 21:20D. Lengal—1111113J. Ruzicka—5790
D. Lengal10
LSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232WSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:05D. Lengal1.331111113M. Mastera3.256950LAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113WAug 28 · 17:35J. Ruzicka2.254650D. Lengal1.571111113WAug 28 · 16:05D. Lengal1.331111123M. Mastera3.2589100WAug 28 · 15:05D. Lengal1.731111113M. Kucera2.009950
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123WSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113WAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113WAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:18J. Ruzicka1.5710570M. Mastera2.251211113LAug 28 · 17:35J. Ruzicka2.254650D. Lengal1.571111113
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