TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13037138
Played Aug 28Finished
Jakub Ruzicka
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611511––––
Dominik Lengal
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:06 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Lengal to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Ruzicka above · Dominik Lengal below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 48 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Dominik Lengal at 58.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Ruzicka 5–11 Dominik Lengal Jakub Ruzicka has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lengal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Lengal
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1632 vs Lengal 1820
Lengal
Correct
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 60% vs Lengal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 40% vs Lengal 60%
Lengal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -1 · Lengal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Lengal) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 2.25 / Lengal 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Lengal)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13037138
Ruzicka2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 25 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Lengal1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 89 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it95% 52 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it85% 70 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka3wins
AwayLengal7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLengal leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka75%3 of 4
AwayLengal100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka4Lengal6n = 10Lengal took 6 of 10
S2Ruzicka3Lengal7n = 10Lengal took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka1Lengal9n = 10Lengal took 9 of 10
S4Ruzicka3Lengal2n = 5Ruzicka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaLengalR − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.137.2−7.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaLengalBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 103 vs 173 / 28237.9%61.4%39 / 103 vs 173 / 282Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LengalRuzicka 2.25/Lengal 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Lengal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lengal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 17:35J. Ruzicka—4650D. Lengal—1111113
WAug 28 · 14:05J. Ruzicka—11116113D. Lengal—681191
LAug 26 · 17:35J. Ruzicka—1110361D. Lengal—61211113
LAug 26 · 15:05J. Ruzicka—8380D. Lengal—1111113
LAug 1 · 21:08J. Ruzicka—8840D. Lengal—1111113
WAug 1 · 19:05J. Ruzicka—11119113D. Lengal—981181
LJul 14 · 18:35J. Ruzicka—4860D. Lengal—1111113
WJul 14 · 16:05J. Ruzicka—1110811123D. Lengal—712118102
LJun 30 · 11:05J. Ruzicka—71111792D. Lengal—117911113
LJun 29 · 21:20J. Ruzicka—5790D. Lengal—1111113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123WSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113WAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113WAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:18J. Ruzicka1.5710570M. Mastera2.251211113LAug 29 · 12:35M. Kucera1.611013811113J. Ruzicka2.20121111862
D. Lengal10
LSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232WSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:05D. Lengal1.331111113M. Mastera3.256950LAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113WAug 29 · 10:05D. Lengal1.40128117133J. Ruzicka2.751011511112WAug 28 · 16:05D. Lengal1.331111123M. Mastera3.2589100WAug 28 · 15:05D. Lengal1.731111113M. Kucera2.009950
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